& # 39; Ramaphoria & # 39; evaporates while reality is coming into view for South Africa CPI Financial | CPI Financial news

The currency has dropped to a level that was most recently seen when Jacob Zuma was still in charge after withdrawing from the dollar from a three-year high in the midst of a poisonous cocktail of negative economic news, political risks and decreasing commodity prices. A withdrawal of investors from emerging markets accelerated this month by nearly 10 percent against the dollar.

When Ramaphosa became president in February, he promised to stimulate growth and attract investment, to establish the finances of state-owned enterprises. and eradicate the corruption that characterized the administration of Zuma. Investors commented: the fringe rose to a peak of three years in February and financing costs declined as inflows into the country's bonds and shares. The mood was called "Ramaphoria". There is no trace today.

"The change in political leadership after Cyril seized Ramaphosa gave a boost to investor sentiment, leading to a rally in the outskirts that has now been reversed" Mark Bohlund, an Africa economist at Bloomberg Economics, wrote in a report. "Foreign investors may be worried about renewed expired fiscal consolidation or the government's ability to contain financial risks from state-owned companies."

Things began to change in April when rising US rates and a rebounding dollar demand for emerging market assets. While crises in Argentina, Turkey and Russia provided the context, internal problems reinforced the retreat.

The economy contracted in the first quarter as the current account deficit increased, underlining the country's vulnerability to capital outflows. Mining production, once the engine of the economy, has collapsed and expenditure on production and consumers have had trouble picking up the slack. An increasing budget deficit has limited Ramaphosa's ability to increase infrastructure and social spending. "

" South Africa faces domestic challenges at a time when the external background is less positive for risky assets, "said Piotr Matys, a London-based emerging market strategist at Rabobank." The US dollar is about generally stronger due to the ever-increasing interest rate differentials, the US and China are involved in a trade war and Turkey is an important warning signal for other economies that depend on volatile capital inflows to finance current account deficits. "

The fringe declined two percent on Wednesday to 14.5292 per dollar, it hit Monday 15.5517, the weakest since June 2016. The cost of insuring the country's debt against default for five years using credit-default swaps climbed 14 basis points to 219, the highest in more than a month Moody & s Investors Service assesses the foreign and local debt of South Africa at Baa3, the lowest level of investment.

To be added to the weakness, Naspers Ltd., accounting for 18 percent of the benchmark index, tumbled after China's Tencent Holdings Ltd., in which it holds a 31% interest, missed earnings expectations.

The tipping point came on August 1, when Ramaphosa, bowing to the populist faction of his party, announced that he would seek a constitutional amendment to allow expropriation of land without compensation.The move could undermine property rights and discourage investment, say some analysts sten. Investors look north to neighboring Zimbabwe, where a program of violent seizures of land that began in the late 1990s destroyed the economy.

Gwede Mantashe, president of the reigning African national congress, harbored worries on Wednesday when he suggested that white farmers should be forced to surrender surplus land to the government, offering traders another excuse to leave the brink on an day that both Moody & # 39; s as Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago sounded alerts on the economy.

"Markets are sensitive to everything that is being observed" Zimbabwe-fication "in the field of land reform & # 39 ;, said Henrik Gullberg, executive director of the strategy for emerging markets at Nomura International Plc. The fact that Mantashe only repeated proposals that had been done before "does not really matter, especially in a wider US dollar environment," he said.

The next big test for the edge may be the medium-term budget release scheduled for October, where Minister Nhlanhla Nene of Finance will have to convince investors that the government can maintain expenditure discipline in the run-up to the 2019 elections.

If it management of the national economy is everywhere as what happens locally, they are & # 39; the reason to be worried.

The municipality of Emfuleni, which is part of the richest province of South Africa, had all its vehicles confiscated by Bidvest Group Ltd., the civil society organization that absolved tax abuse, said Wednesday. Emfuleni lost the vehicles for his traffic, water, electricity and fire brigades.

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