Alberto Fernández vs. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta: A study measured the sadness of the moment, province by province

Some time, Alberto Fernandez Y Horacio Rodríguez Larreta they were even a “friend”. It was while they watched their numbers grow strongly in the early months of the pandemic. But there was a pause, and today, just months after that political honeymoon, the president and head of government had left faced. Each in their corner are the two exponents of the crack with the best image. And how are the numbers between them? A poll that you opened Clarion updated that offer. Province by province. And there is no conclusion whatsoever.

The survey that ends up in this dispute is CB Public Opinion Consultant, a company with origins in Córdoba that has been publishing a ranking of governors since May and was also the first to publish a national measurement of Larreta this year. In its November poll, it also included Sergio Massa in the evaluation.

Some general conclusions of the Fernández-Larreta duo:

cb opinion poll image alberto larreta provinces

– In the analysis quantitative, win clearly Fernández, which has a better image than Larreta in 19 of the 24 provinces.

– In the analysis qualitatively, part of it imbalance is matched: the head of government rules in some of the largest districts (CABA, Córdoba and Mendoza) and in Buenos Aires, the mother of all battles, they remain the same.

– To him future, Larreta also has one plus, at least potentially: because of its greater level of ignorance, it could grow.

Alberto found his north

The tour of the statue of the president, as already told Clarion, had some well-defined landmarks. An abrupt rise when the coronavirus arrived, to very high numbers; then a steady decline until October; and a slight revival in November, opening an unknown: ¿Fernández already hit his floor or was this month just a relief?

The numbers of CB they agree with other consultancies on the recent improvement. Compared to October, the president increased in 14 districts and back in 10. He is still by far the leader of the Frente de Todos with the best image, far above Massa and Cristina Kirchner.

The best, and perhaps even “excellent” in terms of image, it shows in the north. In Chaco, Fernández has the highest rating in favor, 73.4%. And in five other provinces of the region, it exceeds 60 points: Santiago del Estero (65.6%), Catamarca (63.5%), Formosa (63.2%), Misiones (62.6%) and La Rioja ( 69.2%). It also has very favorable figures in Neuquén (68.2%), La Pampa (68.1%) and San Juan (65.3%).

Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner, at the Congress on March 1.  The president shows a better image than his vice.

Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner, at the Congress on March 1. The president shows a better image than his vice.

On the other hand, the president is suffering the worst in some of the largest and most urban districts in the center of the country. There are three that almost compete with each other as the “capital of anti-Kirchnerism”: CABA, Córdoba and Mendoza, the only counties where the Fernández image difference is negative.

1) In the City it combines 35.9% for with 61.2% against.

2) In Córdoba, + 38.3% with – 58.1%.

3) In Mendoza, + 40.2% with -57.3%.

In his favor, and unlike Cristina, the president ends with positive balance in Buenos Aires (+ 59.4% and – 37.4%) and Santa Fe (+ 53.6% and – 41.8%).

Larreta points to the center

The image of the head of government of Buenos Aires is one counteract from that of the president when confronted; but they have Points in common when they are analyzed within their own spaces (Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio).

Where do the opposite sides of the same phenomenon appear? In the Central provinces, where anti-Kirchnerism beats the hardest; and in some northern provinces, traditionally Peronists and impervious to macroism.

Being in the first group three of the five provinces where Larreta Fernández defeats. They are the same in which the president has a negative image difference. There, the head of government shows very good figures.

– In the city, the district it administers, it has the highest positive (65.7%). Complete with a negative of 33.8%.

– In Córdoba this is + 60.8% and + 25.7%.

– In Mendoza, + 52.7% and – 31%.

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Mauricio Macri.  The head of government has a better image than that of the president.

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Mauricio Macri. The head of government has a better image than that of the president.

Him too head of government prevails about the president Santa Fe (+ 54.7% and – 32.2%) and Jujuy (+ 58.4% and – 20.1%). And although it remains lower, it shows good figures in Buenos Aires (58.1% and – 37.2%), Corrientes (+ 56.8% and – 30.5%) and La Pampa (+ 56.8% and – 30.2%).

Be first moderate style, Larreta is doing well in provinces where Mauricio Macri’s strong rejection persists. A clear example is Santiago del Estero: the head of government is 55.6% positive and the former president 76.8% negative.

This, somehow, matches it with Fernández, which provides support in areas impervious to Cristina. The most emblematic case is Santa Cruz, where the head of government and the president have almost an advantage (about 55%), scoring about 12 points from the former president.

In favor of the head of government, there is his level of knowledge, lower than that of Fernández. It potentially has room to grow. In the overview of CB there were counties where they conferred for his grade and the 30% was in “ns / nc” (Catamarca). Only in the two Buenos Aires did this item end below double digits.

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