The exchange rate stabilization plan “market friendly “ To narrow the gap it has delivered results, as of today it is almost 90%. However, from a financial point of view Since October, to lower devaluation expectations, the Central Bank (BCRA) has started to vigorously intervene in the ROFEX market by selling future dollar contracts.
According to official data, the monetary entity closed the month of September with a net sold position in futures of more than $ 5 billion. In addition, if the placements of dollar-linked bonds are added, the amount sold in pesos adjusted for devaluation would currently be higher than 10 billion, according to figures of the consultant 1.816. These data explain why in the short term, the government’s aim is to “not devalue” everything.
However, the Central Bank also does not intend to revert to a stock market slowdown that would cause a serious deterioration in the trade balance and ultimately make a mega devaluation inevitable. In that sense, according to the minister’s own statements Martin Guzman, the price of the dollar must be adjusted to inflation.
The foregoing is extremely interesting for investors because, thanks to the intervention of the BCRA, the prices at which they are quoted Today, future dollar contracts have an implied devaluation similar to the devaluation and inflation projected by the Market Expectations Survey (REM) published by the Central Bank.. For example, the closing price of the last Tuesday of a future contract in February 2021 was $ 93, while according to inflation and expected devaluation, they would be $ 91.5 and $ 91, respectively.
However, we noticed that last week the government accelerated the average daily devaluation of the official dollar, close to 0.3%, and if we calculate the price of the dollar at this rate on an annual basis – without considering a strong exchange rate adjustment – it would paradoxically be higher than what these contracts are trading today: January for $ 90.51, February for $ 95.15 and March for $ 100.02.
For this reason, a financial operation that is little known to investors is currently again a big draw to protect savings: future dollar.
In simple terms, hedging against a potential devaluation of the official dollar today is practically free for investors and with very low risk.
WHAT IS THE FUTURE DOLLAR
Is about the negotiation of dollar contracts at a future date agreeing on the current price, quantity and expiration date. This operation It is agreed in dollars, but it is settled daily in pesos for the exchange rate difference. It is important to note that this It does not require any capital, but simply an account with a brokerage firm and to leave an asset as collateral for about 15% of the amount traded.
Example: A future dollar contract equals $ 1,000. If I buy a $ 93 contract in February 2021, I will be required to leave $ 13,950 as collateral for assets (bonds, stocks, mutual funds, etc.) as the official dollar at the end of the month (notice A3500) is $ 100, we get one profit of $ 7,000.
Finally, we note that many analysts and brokerage firms recommend currency hedging. With regard to this, Adrián Juanes, CEO of WolfTrading, assured that “Today is an investment with very little risk compared to current interest rates, in which you can achieve high returns”.
+ THE BEST
– Currency hedging is currently practically free and with a low risk.
– The conditions set by the IMF for a new agreement may be related to an early adjustment of the exchange rate.
– The February and March contracts cover a likely devaluation in the absence of heavy dollars before the liquidation of the harvest.
+ THE WORST
– No significant changes in the exchange rate are expected before the end of the year.
Founder of interfinance.com.ar. Author of the book “Fundamental Analysis: Strategies for Investing in the Argentine Market”. Twitter: @MgSergioMorales