For Dujovne, the Argentine economy will drop by 1% in 2018



Minister of Finance Nicolás Dujovne predicted yesterday that the economy will end the year with a decrease of 1% and revealed that he was asked International Monetary Fund (IMF) aIn September, the next payout of US $ 3000 million.

"The growth was less than we expected, the direct impact of the drought was 1.3 points of GDP, but if you look at the indirect effects on agricultural machinery, transport and trade, it follows that the drought has 2 points of our growth has taken this year, "he explained. Dujovne.

As it turned out, the minister reiterated that the situation will also be subject to the uncertainty caused by the legal megacause about the supposed framework of corruption during the Kirchnerian governments, which already consists of former civil servants and senior entrepreneurs in the first phase.

Dujovne did not hesitate to point out that the decline of the Argentine economy will be irreversible in the coming months, the magnitude of which was glimpsed last week when it became known that the June activity, during the first phase of the currency crisis, , 7% declined.

For the national official, the crisis will return next year when, according to its calculations, GDP will grow by 1.5%. Dujovne's bet is that the economy begins to recover when the effectiveness of the adjustment plan to reduce the budget deficit begins to be observed.

Orders to the IMF

Minister Dujovne asked the Fund to promote the second payout of the mega credit of up to US $ 50,000 million, which Argentina agreed with last June.just after the outbreak of the currency debacle.

the Pink House started negotiations with the staff of the multilateral credit agency to receive in September US $ 3000 million. Even tHe said he would have also consulted on the possibility to extend the initial credit to US $ 65,000 million.

In the government, they believe that there will be no doubts to anticipate the next payout, especially after the results obtained by the envoys of the Fund during the mission they carried out a few days ago in Buenos Aires.

formally, The IMF board was also asked to delete the item that stipulates that the Treasury repurchases non-transferable invoices that are owned by the BCRA.

The original undertaking entered into by the Cambiemos administration indicates that the Treasury will allocate each quarter U $ S 3,125 million to obtain those papers held by the monetary authority, and then the entity headed by Luis Caputo will use those funds to disarm the Lebac shares.

The scenario worsened, however, the external front caused additional pressure on the financial difficulties and doubts about that original plan became clear when The country risk of Argentina exceeded the limit of 700 basis points. In this respect, Dujovne acknowledged that the procedure caused uncertainty in the market.

Yesterday also the vulnerability of Argentina became clear with the new advance of the dollar at its historical maximum. The power station intervened twice a day and placed U $ S 210 million at the negotiating table, but it could prevent the US currency from continuing to rise and close $ 31.54.

Negotiations with banks

The head of the Central Bank, Luis Caputo, has in recent days accelerated negotiations with representatives of private entities from abroad to gain credit with which he can obtain US $ 15,000 million. to boost reserves and put an end to the exchange crisis on the local market.

Negotiations seeking additional funding also aim to remove the doubts of those who believe that IMF money will not reach Argentina.

The plan is to remove the spirit from default

The government looked almost desperately for it US $ 15,000 extra millions to secure the financing until December 2019 and thus remove a mind that appeared on the market a month ago: the possibility of a new standard.

Money is not necessary now, but The government took note of what happened in the roadshow that was recently carried out by three senior officials in the United States. The word that investors call the most was not an investment, but a standard. The goal is that these doubts do not become certainties.

The time for the compliments of the marked has been left behind. No longer 45% annual peso rates attract capital. No bicycle is possible when risk aversion receives investment funds, which are now looking for safer destinations than Argentina.

What happened? Failure to meet self-imposed goals entails costs and the market acts accordingly. Failure to meet the inflation targets has only shown that the government has no control over the most sensitive variables in the economy.


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