Javier González Fraga: "Inflation will fall much faster than the rates"



The recovery of the economy reveals the most important government officials, because this is the key to the election opportunities of Mauricio Macri. The owner of Banco Nación, Javier González Fraga, considered that "From the second quarter of 2019, reactivation will be much more visible to the public, although the economy is starting to grow from the beginning of the year ".

The economist felt that she & # 39; solid & # 39; foundations to get out of the crisis: & # 39; The budget deficit disappears, the red of the current account drops to less than 10,000 million dollars next year and the bomb that the Lebac meant will disappear. next month. "

González Fraga spoke to a group of journalists, including Infobae, about the economic situation, but also focused on the challenges of Banco Nación. And the obligatory question was of course for the strike that will affect public banking today: "The bank negotiated with the private banks an additional 12% increase for November that we can not grant to the public banks. We offered 5.4% and then another two increases, which amounts to just over 11%. We do not agree that what the private parties arrange is that we also have to give it to us ".

The head of the nation justified its optimism about reactivation in several factors: "inflation will start to fall significantly since November, closer to 2% than 3%. The recovery of wages will also start and the dollars of the beautiful harvest will come in, with the biggest impact in the interior first. "In that sense he was of the opinion that" the scenario of the coming months is that inflation will fall much faster than the rates of interest, because the Central does not want to get carried away like in the past. "

This view that inflation will fall faster is due to the offering of percentages up to 10% plus UVA, in the case of loans with a maturity of one year. "We are taking corrected funds for inflation and loans at the BADAR rate, because the return will be much higher," he explains.

Below are some passages from González Fraga's dialogue regarding the perspectives of Banco Nación:

– What are the risks that the favorable scenario of economic recovery does not occur?

– Of course they exist. There is the trade war between the United States and China, whatever happens with international interest or the situation in Brazil. And of course the election uncertainty weighs. It is no novelty that people are very polarized between Mauricio Macri and Cristina Kirchner. And that will also play a more important role from March or April. But I do not think there are many surprises with the dollar, because at these levels it is at a much more competitive level than six months ago.

– Is the replacement of Lebac by Leliq that the Central is dangerous?

– On the contrary, what is being done is perfect. There the former head of the Central had a very good vision, Luis Caputo. It can not be that the BCRA has issued Lebac to be bought by small investors, not only from Argentina, but also from abroad. It was a very dangerous situation. I do not take the blame Federico Sturzeneggerbecause something had to do with the dollars that came at that moment. And it was necessary to inject the weights that were injected to stop accumulating reserves. The Leliq, on the other hand, are exclusively owned by banks.

– Is it true that the BNA has lost the loan capacity?

– Partially Yes. This has to do with different aspects. On the one hand in the budget it was determined that we will use 15,000 million pesos of our profits. In addition, the IMF has asked us that the funds paid by the Treasury do not increase the lending capacity of the bank. And that is an important change from what has always been done.

– Do you buy a lot of Leliq?

– On the contrary, we buy much less than the rest of the system. We prefer to continue lending to SMEs, we increase microcredit and we also continue our line of mortgage loans, albeit more slowly than before. We should not do business by placing the power station, but encourage production.

– Why did the fees for discounting checks increase so much?

– Actually, we set all bank rates at market level, we could not maintain lines with lower rates. In some cases, especially large companies, the impact might have been felt, but this has more to do with ensuring our liquidity. Having said that, I would like to emphasize that we are still the bank that is leading the increase in credit. In the past three years we went from 9.5% to 16% of the total. In the case of mortgage loans, we represent 50% of everything the financial system has granted. The default value in this segment is minimal, only 50 out of a total of 50,000. And half of them are due to couples who divorce and temporarily stop paying.


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