Bad mood of investors with Argentina remains, despite the official attempt to clear the clouds of the ability to implement the budgetary adjustment with the IMF and have enough money to cover the financial program until the end of 2019. Last week, the trio of deputy chief of staff Mario Quintana; the secretary of finance, Santiago Bausili; and the vice president of the Central Bank, Gustavo Cañonero, on a fleeting trip to New York, tried to calm the uncertainty and ensure compliance with the commitments. But the message did not pay off. On Friday, the dollar closed the record of $ 31.46, the country risk exceeds 700 points and the stock exchange in Buenos Aires plummeted. "The message of Dujovne, Bausili and Cañonero in the journeys they have made in recent weeks is not the way, the communication with investors is not very accurate, they have to transfer more tax obligations," an international bank analyst at PERFIL evaluated. attended one of the meetings. Now it will be Macri himself who will try to restore his self-confidence. In a jumble of plans, he decided to attend the UN General Assembly on 18 September and meet the businessmen of Wall Street.
Mariano Arrieta, Head of Strategy for Emerging Markets in London at Credit Suisse, said: "The market is saturated with Argentinian risk and the government can not convey complete confidence; it is wise to try to restore some budget rule. To reduce the country risk, Macri must in one way or another secure the market that the budgetary commitment will be maintained after the elections ". He felt that "it would give investors a little more security" to have a 2019 budget approved by the opposition. Alberto Ramos, economist at Goldman Sachs, said that "Macri should assure investors that its government is deeply committed to accelerating the pace of fiscal consolidation to reduce major financing needs and that it will not resort to unorthodox measures; the budget deficit can be economically, socially and politically expensive in the short term, but it is the best solution to guarantee long-term growth and stability. "On the other hand, José Echagüe, from Consultatio, indicated that" Argentina has many debts issued, that part of the market is overbought and that every possible opportunity for price improvement has a tendency to liquidate.On Wall Street Macri has to give predictability. "
Standard. In recent weeks, the ghost phenomenon has once again emerged among investors. The benchmarks of international banking claim that fear is unfounded, at least in the short term. Ramos said that "the probability of default in the short term is low". The president of JP Morgan in Argentina, Facundo Gómez Minujin, agreed: "I do not think there is a chance of default." The financial problem of Argentina is small and, even in the worst case scenario, it can be solved. "In another international bank noted that the country can still resort to other sources of funding as" a repo at banks, or funding lines with the Treasury of the United States. " For Arrieta: "There is no risk of imminent shortcomings, but it concerns us from 2021" because "the debt is untenable in the long term".