Edited by Carlos Pagni, "El macriperonismo"
Then the most important concepts are:
- The government is concerned about a central issue (logically speaking, because it is one of the fluctuations of the economy that affects politics most): history it is plagued by political changes caused by recessions, decline in the level of economic activity, shrinking economy, loss of employment. This is what the government announces will happen in the coming months, how many months? Nobody knows. How deep? It is also difficult to know.
- The factors that fuel this phenomenon, this withdrawal of the economy, are known to many: a very high interest rate; devaluation, which stops the economy until it is known what the real exchange rate will be.
- Now another phenomenon appears that the government pays special attention to, namely
the scriptures of the bribesand its effect on the economy, why? Banks, especially international and above all American, are very reticent, practically refusing, to lend money to companies that have reputational risk, although they have not condemned the directors of these companies in criminal cases, because they have some moral sound in the newspapers, the bank has been withdrawn and the person who lent them money must explain within the bank itself
- This is what is happening and the governing party looks with great concern not only for traditional public works, especially for Private Public Participation (PPP) programs, those that came with private funding and in which Macri trusted serve as a vector of economic dynamism now that the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (
IMF) had to cut off state-funded conventional public works programs
- Then there is another problem, very delicate, and a problem that is very difficult to find, because it is an important dilemma: what happens to the companies that
admit that you paid bribes to get contracts? Do those contracts still have value? The state, who has to pay the work certificates, is there an official who dares to sign the check?
- The government imagines
a whole series of measures related to forcing these companies to pay penalties or compensation on the one hand if they know that they have acquired certain companies in illegal ways and on the other hand for the future systems, controls, very strict of ethical behavior within the company at the level of transparency of procedures, controlled by the state
- One might wish that all this storm, whose legal dimension we still know little, offers a healthier institutional framework for the relationship between public and private in Argentina, which was historically controversial, not only in Argentina, but throughout the world. . Latin America The problem of
corruptionit is a disease that we should heal quickly because it generates symptoms of political instability
- Talking about the fact that notebooks are to a certain extent a recession factor, the government helps to hide a more sensitive problem, and that there is an additional recession factor that has to do with the perception that the international world of the economy, and in particular the financial system, has the Argentine situation. Where does that vulnerability manifest itself? In the country risk, which has more than 700 points. These are the costs of the credit for the Argentine state and the perception of problems that the state has for financing has been transferred to companies.
- These messages from the markets that are transferred to the risk codes, the government receives them and tries to respond. The first
is to renegotiate with the Fund to go back with a number of commitments that have been adopted with an excess of optimism
- On the other hand, this renegotiation, which is open, takes place in a completely different context from that of the original agreement; in a very short time, interest rates have risen instead of falling and the exchange rate has deteriorated even further, that is, the government will sit down again for the fund shortly after it has entered into an agreement to renegotiate a number of clauses.
- The other answer given by the government has to do with the negotiations on the
budget, a very important one because there is always a discussion about power behind the tax. When a politician is discussing public accounts, whether it is the national state or a province, what he sees behind those figures is ultimately not neutral accounting, but he sees voices
the budget negotiations allow us to see the political situation of each group in Argentina, and here very interesting developments are starting to tell us about the map of power and the electoral hypotheses with which the main parties work, why? what?
- In addition to all the noise that the economy has, beyond the pessimism that can be on the market and in a large part of the population, it would give the impression that an important sector of Peronism continues to consider the re-election of Mauricio Macri as the scenario likely. in front of
- What does it show? In the ease with which this sector of peronism negotiates with the government. Many of the governors are willing to give them the votes in the
Congressto Macri, as long as the president does not adjust them too much from an accounting point of view
- A new game opens, disturbing for power relations: a group of Peronists willing to do "macriperonismo", not stick to Cambiemos, but to enter into an agreement with Macri at the expense of the many radicals in those provinces who have chance to win
- There is something very clear today in Peronism: there seems to be no project of clear, competitive, promissory power, alternative to that of
Cristina Kirchner, this is the central problem, and is that the former president continues to block the renewal of that party
- It means that there is an important group of Peronists, including trade unionists, who elect the re-election of Mauricio Macri before the resurrection of Cristina, because they know that if the now national senator is strengthened before going against Macri she will go against them for traitors
- This panorama raises several unknowns, and one of them has to do with the reason why Cristina has the strength it has despite the moral pigpen in which it is installed. Unfortunately, we are confronted with a rather controversial, rather problematic scenario: it seems that there is a dissociation in the populism between the socio-economic vision of society and the institutional vision
- This dissociation is not only in the minds of the populist leaders, it is not only in the left or progressive parties, it is also in the society that is now dissociated, in which 30% is willing to vote for candidates whose corruption is apparent, and another party is furious and would prefer that those candidates go to jail, even without trial
- The perception of corruption for a large part of populism is very disturbing, it involves revising one's own behavior, accepting contradictions, accepting that there is a dark side to what they have held that they do not want to see
- Is it a problem of Kirchnerism or the entire Argentine society? Do we now learn from all the corruption we had or could have known before?
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