The history is against the fact that Julie Bishop becomes prime minister, because good foreign ministers in Australia do not get the best job.
Since the beginning of the Menzies era, only two foreign ministers – or foreign minister, as the function was named until 1971 – have become PM.
They are the largely unread Billy McMahon and, between his two steps as prime minister, Kevin Rudd.
Gough Whitlam combined the two for a while.
Yet Australia has many extremely competent foreign ministers who have never joined The Lodge – Percy Spender, Richard Casey, Garfield Barwick, Paul Hasluck, Andrew Peacock, Bill Hayden, Gareth Evans and Alexander Downer.
However, Mrs Bishop has already reached a milestone, namely Australia's first female foreign minister.