Market expectations for inflation this and next year were high in the Focus survey of the Central Bank (BC) yesterday, against the prospect of a higher dollar in 2018.
For 2018, the IPCA increase is calculated in the 4.17% increase, while for 2019 it is 4.12%, 0.02 percentage point more than in the previous week in both cases.
While this year the central goal of the official target is 4.50%, the following year is 4.25%, with a margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points to more or less.
In August, the IPCA-15 increase fell to 0.13%, compared to 0.64% in July, the lowest level of the month in eight years.
For the dollar, the Focus showed that the consulted specialists began to see a price of R $ 3.75 at the end of 2018, from R $ 3.70 before, after the US currency ended last week at the R $ 4 level , 10. The expectation for the end of 2019 is that the dollar will close at R $ 3.70, unchanged from the previous survey.
Even with the current pressure of the dollar, low inflation holds the room for the BC to keep interest rates low, and experts have maintained the position that the Selic will close this year at the current level of 6.50%, ending in 2019 8%.
Regarding the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) for 2018, there was a downward adjustment from 1.49% to 1.47%, but in 2019 the expectation of a growth of 2.50% remains.Reuters