What is the biggest problem today? President Piñera?
I asked the question to several experts and I listened to the silences.
The polls, Chile Come on, the congress, human rights, the economy that is growing, but not reaching people, how hard is it?
(The list is long, why would you be tired of coming in).
Now that we know Casen 2017Will it be the poor income distribution or 20.7% of the population is "poor" when we look at education, health, work, social security and housing? And all this up to more than 40 years of the model?
Difficult to choose where to start.
August has been a model month when we talk about complications, diagnostic attempts and mistakes. One after another. And as if shifting sand would be stepped on, it would become increasingly difficult to get out quickly, since September is on the corner, with its national holidays, but first with its memories. And the "11" this time will fall on my field after indult to seven soldiers, post bomb of the former Minister of Culture with his statements about the Museum of Remembrance, after announcing the Museum of democracy and post fail in the attempts to remove the new one Assistant Secretary of Assistance Networks, Luis Castillo, for possibly concealing relevant information in the case of the murdered former president Eduardo Frei?
"We have to wait a few days to see if things improve for the government, if it manages the agenda," says sociologist and political scientist Patricio Navia, convinced September is never easy because "dictatorships polarize".
Since last weekend, the desire of La Moneda to take control, has been tireless. They hardly slept on Wednesday night – they had it Minister of Finance, Felipe Larraín– to arrive at the Finance Commission in time with the project of tax modernization.
Why are you talking about "modernization" and not "reform"?
"Because reform means that you will correct the course and do not want to correct it with regard to the social market model. He wants to undo what Bachelet has done, but can not use an excavator and besides, since the opposition has a parliamentary majority, it knows that it must be careful in how it negotiates and sells it to the public, "Navia interprets.
Will it bother? Like every Monday, the Cadem survey and / or the criteria will give directions. They are not national surveys (only the CEP and the Mori are), their representativeness is questioned, although their periodicity gives a guideline on how public opinion feels. This year they recorded a systematic increase in the popularity of the president, with a ceiling of 60%. Until a relentless August the claw gave: 15 points less. Almost immediately. Difficult battle Piñera keeps an eye on the figures, confirms Cristóbal Bellolio, an academic from the Government School of the U. Adolfo Ibáñez. He, like Navia, knows that it is unrealistic to expect continued high support. Bellolio:
– In general, tropical moments are recorded at the beginning and at the end, except for peaks such as the rescue of the miners, in their first term. Or Ricardo Lagos, when he offered "here and now" relations with Bolivia. Or when he said "no" to Bush, who asked him to vote for him at the UN to enter Iraq.
In the normality of a democracy, say experts, it is normal that a president can navigate between 40% and 50%. But here Piñera can not stand it.
"I think he was half chopped in his first period because it was not as good as it could have been, and now he comes to get a 7 he will not get, but he can command another law give, it can be Lavin, and so he can go to the house after he has said the last word, it is his great historical contest with Bachelet, "says Bellolio.
How much is the approval of the surveys?
Little or nothing says Marta Lagos, supported by decades of experience as director of Latinobarómetro and Mori. continues:
– Recently, we did an investigation in the north, in Antofagasta, about the most reliable institutions. In the first place, the universities were abandoned; in the second, the Jumbo, and in third, the Mall Plaza. What value does political approval have in this regard? What happens is that the lack of security in itself makes the government relevant to the surveys about its performance. Moreover, the "background" has lost value as an indicator worldwide. After the war there was a relationship between support and government in Western countries. So Mitterrand was 12 years old; González, 14, Thatcher 12 … The approval indicated that the person could continue the command. That changed in the 90s. The disappointment with globalization and mistrust in institutions was an atomic bomb for the weight of politics. It has been a long time since the cabinets are no longer as they were. The political weight of the second floor today is that of a bunch of children. Two or three governments back, he snored. Political know-how is over; now there is communication.
According to Lagos, this is aggravated by the president's own insecurity and emotional shortage. He explains:
– The president comes from a family of intellectuals who despised money. You need it, but you do not show it or collect it. And what he has is something that his parents did not appreciate. And what they appreciated, they did not have it.
Let's talk seriously
"Piñera promised to become world champion and it turns out that we are not even in the quarterfinals," Navia summarizes, referring to the promise of better times, more jobs (anticipating the creation of 600 thousand positions), better salaries and social protection. Now, with a half-yearly GDP of 5.3% – the best in six years – unemployment is rising (they justify it by saying that more people go to work), that 70% of Chileans receive less than $ 550 thousand and that although national poverty measured by income has dropped by 3 points since 2015 (8.6%), there are areas where it doubles, such as La Araucanía by 17.2%. Detrasito, Ñuble and El Maule.
So after a long round, are we more or less the same?
Hervi, the caricaturist, painted it in his joke last Thursday. A man with a beard and worn clothes says to another: "I have surpassed my level of poverty. Before I was poor, I am now very poor. & # 39;
Well-known Casen, someone tweeted: "The survey shows us something we do not want to see, and as long as we continue to do the same, we will achieve the same results."
It is clear that the figures are not the exclusive responsibility of one or the other government, even ifThe communicative attack now holds Bachelet responsible for all the negative. The complicated thing is that the program depends on more growth and more investment as an essential pill, in a context of commercial war in the US. UU. Chile, which affects the world economy, weakened mainly the emerging economies and our country as a result of lower copper prices, higher oil prices and an imminent fall in exports, especially to China, the most important trading partner.
Piñera's plan does not provide for changes in the background that affect the model.
Guillermo Holzmann, political scientist and academic:
– There is an effective leadership problem: Piñera sets expectations and the public does not see that they are being met. But there is no response from the government or its parties. He keeps his speech. And we must not forget that the triumph in the elections was not ideologicalbut something that is related to better economic circumstances of life.
Now it is not enough to ask patience to wait as promised: "Piñera tries to alleviate the increase in investment (7.1% in the semester), but that is not the investment that will take us on the path of development Because our economy is of services, consumption and finance, but we do not have industries, and it does not matter anymore. Debt and delinquency have risen; salaries are not, because in jobs the jobs are low or without specialization. And on the other hand, a big employer in Chile is the state, now with strong spending restrictions, to try to return to the fiscal balance – Bachelet has spent more and made debts to the country – then the government's appointments significantly decreased.
According to Holzmann, There is a double diagnostic error in La Moneda's plan. Internationally and internationally, without adequate monitoring of the possibilities that a commercial war can have here.
There is more:
– Internally, on the other hand, we talk about innovation, productivity, support for SMEs, the fourth industrial revolution, and we repeat everything well, because it is on the agenda of international organizations, but we do not industrialize it. It is the background point. And not
we do it because it is an ideological issue for the government. It appears that the world shows that the only way to industrialize a country is through the direct action of the state. Final. Or you do it in accordance with another country, with entrepreneurs or under the assumption that the same state fulfills an entrepreneurial role. But these three things are unacceptable to those who are still in neoliberalism 1.0, the Washington Consensus, 1989. That is, less state, more market, private investors invest in the country to grow. The concrete thing is that if a private individual wants to invest in industrialization, he must associate with the state or give him tax incentives, guarantees.
When we talk about industrialization, we talk about patents. For example, what is needed to add value to copper or lithium is a scientific and technological challenge that was almost always invented in Europe, the US. UU. or China. And the transfer of technology to be paid is something that is normally done from state to state. "Germany, England, France and Canada are willing to talk to the Chilean state to settle here, but we must create the conditions." Hence, according to Holzmann, qualified jobs leave where, as in mining, an operator of a computer crane earns $ 2 million or more because he has studied for it. Our boutiques – wine, salmon, fruit – require few professionals and many employees, that is basic salaries.
Returning to its original idea, the analyst stressed that "today, for the first time, the agendas of the UN, the OECD, the IMF and others coincide: globalization is untenable if inequality is maintained. more participation in the global market must be generated for that industrial need, and in that difficulty Chile has a decade of ten years and longer. & # 39;
With a stone in the chest
The world has changed, but are we up to date? When a communist country manages capitalism – against decades of education – the conclusion seems clear: it is times of pragmatism, something Piñera & # 39; s right. No story or epic. "Things are done differently and I think the story will no longer be seen in a government."
What can you expect?
– Perhaps one has expectations of what past revolutions of what a four-year government can do. Yes, you could end up as "moderate from the right". The question is, and what else? That is not exactly transforming, not that it would take away the dream. Governing is navigating, overcoming storms, reaching port. That you can not take the path you choose … occupational risk & # 39; s!
– The right must come with a rock in the chest of the fact that in eight years he has twice come to power democratically. The generation of Piñera, the youth patrol of the 90s, will go down in history as the most unsuccessful and at the same time the most successful in the history of Chile. Failed because she lost a plebiscite, five presidential, six parliamentary, six municipal. Successful because she won the president twice. That does not say anything else. You have to be realistic about what you can achieve in politics. The law has achieved a great deal and can ultimately, to the extent that the left does not rearm until 2021, surrender the order to another of its sector.
– Piñera, is he a hostage taker of the UDI as said by the helmsman DC, Fuad Chahín?
– No, it governs with a cultural world that is that of the UDI. It will be more open in some things, but in others it is the same. I do not think he really thinks Chadwick or Larraín is so different.
Lagos notes the end result:
– The same can happen with Piñera as with Bachelet. Formally, she made her program: reform of taxes, education and labor. The biggest since the return of democracy … which did not meet the expectations of the people: change their place in society. The expectation was that there would be a dismantling of inequality and discrimination. And it had no impact. Piñera can achieve high growth and at the end of its term people can be there, gain a little more, but without social mobility. People want to come where they are, to reach a higher level. And what Casen tells us today is that we are where we are.
The right beyond Piñera
After the changing of the cabinet, in the hectic days of the communication attack, legislative proposals, economic figures and surveys, President Piñera also visited the party administration of Chile. Vamos, I think it is immortalized with photos from the smiling group. Have the discrepancies been exceeded? Put the claims to silence? "That there are no differences is not understanding what the policy is about"says the sociologist Navia. Beyond the affirmation, yes, there is a cloth to cut.
Evópoli, who made a public statement in the chapter of Minister Rojas stating that "nothing, never, in whatever circumstances or place, justifies the violation of human rights", underlining his claim that he is a modern right, liberal politics and in value He even made a tax approach.
The scientist Bellolio notes:
He tries to keep his promise to be a liberal party. He was committed to gender identity; tunes for euthanasia and equal marriage. In his differences with RN and UDI, the birth of a tension can be seen that will be constant in the coming years, past Piñera.
– The most entertaining fight is Evópoli, who tries to make himself fat every day. And every time he challenges the old right – David's fight against Golliat – he will win. Many will say: "Look, it has nothing to do with Pinochet, they are liberal and pro-market … It does not seem so bad!". As long as Evópoli continues to make that counterpoint with the "cavernaria" to the right of Vargas Llosa, it will have expansion capacity. Piñera must leave the past and feed what Evópoli is his ally. It will cause problems within the coalition, yes, but he understands the finances, knows which shares are going up and which are not.
Marta Lagos sees it differently:
– I agree with what Carlos Larraín says: the right is what we know, what do we do with stories! There is no other. It is conservative, reactionary, authoritarian. Do not tell me that a statement by Evópoli weighs heavier. It is only a small light, a candle, in a dark room.
– Some anticipate a new scenario. On the one hand a renewed right and on the other a block as Frente Amplio mature, consolidated.
– That will not happen in this generation; maybe before the 1940s. JVR, Belollio and Desbordes have 20 years to go in politics. They do not let go of power. And if you have a young Bernardo Larraín Matte at the head of the businessmen who raises the same things as his father said, what is the expectation of change? Zero. Five elections can last. Links are renewed faster because there are no actual powers that prevent the creation of something new on the right.
The sword of Damocles?
He did not say it in public and he probably denies it. But in the neighborhood they say: the new Minister of Culture, Consuelo Valdés, does not think about taking over the task of the announced museum, that of democracy, an idea mentioned in the government's program, but that was launched at a bad time, eyes of analysts and experts.
Guillermo Holzmann, political scientist and academic from various universities he expects that "they will eventually question him from all sides, what democracy do we have?" If the proposal wants to show a successful transition, it is to look at the navel, and it can be viewed from different perspectives: that Pinochet accepted the rules he had established at the beginning of the eighties, that the Concertación knew how to find and install the democratic way to return to normality, that there was national consensus about the need for change. They can give different interpretations, but when do you make a museum? When it's history So, do we bury democracy? I think the announcement will be the sword of Damocles because they have to give some explanations to try and explain what behind it, and it means a complete distraction from the government's agenda.
"It is fine, nice about the museum, but I do not know if it is the best place to place resources now The memory is super expensive and there are few people who visit it. Create more where few people go, I do not know if this is the best way to go further, "says Patricio Navia, political scientist, sociologist and professor, convinced that this has not been announced by pressure from the most difficult law. :
– The President is of the opinion that the Chileans do not fully appreciate the transition to democracy and the policy of the agreements of the early 90s, of which he was a senator for Santiago. The museum is a proof of his contribution. A museum for "his" right to show that they were doing things right.
Cristóbal Bellolio, Doctor of Political Philosophy, Academic of the School of Government of the UAI, believes that Piñera's announcement was a "terrible idea." In the first place, because every time we talk about the past and we putting ourselves in code 73, getting the right to lose, the same as going back to 88, the 88 most important plebiscite … I do not know what they'll have in mind … maybe we're celebrating the actors of the transition and looking a kind of chapel, but it is clear that today is focused on the badger, that is reading.
– As Ricardo Lagos said … Minister Valdés, according to unofficial information, does not have in mind to take care of this. Some think that this will be the task on the "second floor".
– If you are going to assemble the museum, do not do those who have so many candles at this funeral. Make it a task for the next generation! Those who were born in democracy.
Marta Lagos, sociologist, director of Latinobarómetro and Mori-Chile, sees the museum as a manifestation of a reality: "This government is not from Piñera but from Let & # 39; s Go in Chile", where the right of always install their problems.
– Piñera's speech by former Minister Mauricio Rojas did not have the tone of passive accomplices. Now he said what he thinks, but he added at different times & # 39; buts & # 39; toe. Relativized the issue. For me it was the verification that CHV has the reins. Jacqueline van Ryselberghe (president UDI) and Mario Desbordes (helmsman RN) said "setting context". And Piñera eventually announced the museum of democracy.
The idea – included in the government's program – was analyzed at the beginning of the year and, according to the versions, there were doubts as to whether it should be called the Museum of Democracy or the Museum of the Transition. Rojas then opted for the second.