(Original title: The land market is often flown in. The property of the property market is no longer the logic of time)
Times Weekly reporter Cai Ying from Guangzhou
The land market is cooling. On 13 August the Guangzhou Resource Exchange Center sold a total of five residential plots with a total transfer area of 193,800 square meters.
Compared to the busy scenes in which the big developers actively took over the country in 2016 and the high price was frequent, the ground auction turned out to be much deserted. Of the five plots sold, one plot was sold at the minimum price, two parcels were slightly above the low price, the premium was no more than one percent and the premium of the remaining two parcels was also less than 10%. .
The flow of photos even increases on the national land market, the plots of many cities are spread out and housing companies have become more cautious on the land market.
Make the country more rational
The second phase of the Fenghuang Road site in the Huadu district of Guangzhou has a lot of fate. After experiencing the delay, suspension and streaming, it was finally included in the Shenzhen Runtou Consulting Co., Ltd. under China Resources. China Resources Land also won a homestead in Sancha Village, Zhongxin Town, Zengcheng District at the minimum price.
In addition, Kaide also scored two sons in the bottom shoot and won two lots from Xinlian Village in Yucheng Street, Zengcheng District. The total premium rate is less than 10%. Huafa went to Zengcheng for the first time and fought for the land price of Sancha Village, Zhongxin Town, Zengcheng District, with a total price of 929 million yuan, the price corresponded to RMB 111,000 / m2 and the premium was only 0.54% .
And this is not isolated. On the same day, the land market in Jinan was significantly cooled, including 8 land was flown, 10 land was sold at the minimum price and the remaining land was sold at a low premium.
On 10 August all lots were auctioned on the Taiyuan soil auction market, including the only two land purchase companies that had not bid on the auction reserve.
In fact, these eight lots are high, after some industry insiders estimate that this auction is expected to be born this year, the highest price of Taiyuan, the price of the land unit.
The cooling of the land market has been carried out in various places: the land parcels in Liangzhu New City, Suzhou, Ningbo, Huzhou and Hefei in Hangzhou reflect the fact that housing corporations are more cautious about acquiring land.
According to a report released by CITIC Securities, sales in the first seven months of this year still maintained a growth rate of 30% -40%, but in the event that the total transaction volume continued to rise, many hotspots often experienced land auctions of high quality. . In the first seven months of this year, the total number of auctions in the 300 cities was 258, 59% more than in the same period in 2014. In the first seven months of this year the auction rate was around 6%, while in the first-line cities the auction rate highest in the second quarter.
The premium rate for land transactions is also on the falling channel. According to data from the China Index Academy, the average transaction price of residential districts in 300 rural cities fell by almost 20% in July and the premium fell by 22% compared to the same period last year.
A person with an investment and expansion of a Shimao group told the Times Weekly reporter that the company is indeed more cautious and rational in taking the country. "We did not conquer a piece of land on the land market in the first half of the year."
"The company has a shortage in land acquisition, we will consider all factors before the start of the shoot." If the return on the investment is not high, we prefer to give it up. "The manager of the investment expansion department of a small and medium-sized housing company in Guangzhou told the Times Weekly reporter.
The inevitable choice of profit rate and deleveraging
After the low-for-low control policy has been considered, the first and second-rate cities have actually introduced the comprehensive price limit since the second half of last year. In the context of strict application of the price limit, the profit margin of the developer is gradually weakened. In this context, the phenomenon of high unit price and high premium rate has been significantly reduced on the land market.
"Profits and repayments have become a hard indicator for our company: first, we have to achieve the net profit margin of more than 10%." Secondly, we must realize capital recovery within eight to ten months. "The investment extension manager of a housing provider told Time Weekly.
Changes in the rules for the land supply also limit the activities on the landside of housing companies. Diversified land auction rules and bidding conditions, such as sales limit price and self-sustaining area, increase the hidden costs of the project, increasing the barriers and difficulty of developers.
Huadu Fenghuang Roadblock 2 is too demanding due to the transfer conditions, and the company indicates that the development is too difficult and the power is being covered.
The specific requirements for the bidder must provide 12,000 square meters of housing in the context of land use. The designated unit of the Huadu District Government of Guangzhou will buy back at a price of 3,500 yuan / square meter, and the floor price of the plot is 15,914 yuan / square meter.
After the fifth renewal of the transfer, the site was replaced by two pure residential land combinations and eventually sold at the minimum price.
"Conditional constraints are a big problem, it is difficult to meet all the requirements, so a lot of land is being auctioned." An insider in the industry regretted the Time Weekly reporter that the logic of taking the time-for-space strategy to conquer the more expensive land no longer exists.
Financing pressure has also made housing associations much more geographically. According to wind data, the average leverage of listed real estate companies rose to 76.16% in the first quarter of 2018.
At the same time as the debt ratio increased, the size of the housing financing also gradually declined. According to the monitoring data from the same policy advisory body, the total funding of 40 typical housing companies in the first seven months of 2018 reached 410.5 billion yuan, which corresponds to the financing volume in the second half of 2017. At the same time, financing methods such as freezing of financing needs, corporate bonds and Bank loans strictly regulated.
In this context, all large housing corporations have proposed the purpose of de-leveraging, and this most direct impact is reflected in land investments.
At present, most cities have strict requirements on the source of land funds. Property companies must take their own funds to obtain land. Bank loans, loan transfers, shareholder loans and private funds can not be used to pay land transport costs. This ensures that the housing companies that are not properly funded do not dare to blindly choose the country.
Housing corporations take the attitude of the two parties
Behind the increase in land flow and the reduction of the premium rate, the land acquisition attitude of the housing companies also showed a differentiation trend with two levels.
Times China gradually slowed down to take the ground. According to the financial report, in the first half of 2018 China gave a total of 6,115 billion yuan to acquire land, and in the beginning of 2018 China's land acquisition plan was 20 billion yuan. Chairman Xiong Xiong said the company will be more rational and cautious in acquiring land in the second half of the year, and 20 billion yuan of funds will not be spent per se.
The competition from land auctions is becoming increasingly fierce and there are also housing companies that have different ways to realize "curve and land" through acquisitions, industrial real estate and old reforms.
Times China sees urban renewal as an important way to increase land reserves. From the first half of 2018, Times China has 70 urban renewal projects.
The aforementioned investors of the Shimao Group in the Guangzhou-Shenzhen region have told the Times Weekly that the company is gradually increasing the market share in the actual market. Currently, the share of the company's open and non-public market is about 50%.
Despite the lack of financial resources, the total rhythm of land acquisition has slowed down compared to last year, but in order to ensure the scale of activities, some companies are still taking the country off the market and benefiting from it.
In the first half of 2018 Agile was quite active on the land market and expanded its country in a countercyclical period.
According to data from the China Index Academy, Agile's land purchase in the first half of the year amounted to 30.9 billion yuan. The momentum of active expansion will continue. Agile insiders told the Times Weekly reporter: "If there is a suitable opportunity, we will still take the picture. The investment target at the beginning of the year will not change, but we will be more careful, not The representative does not shoot. & # 39;
"Sticking to anti-cyclical expansion" is also the consistent investment strategy of Xuhui: in the first half of 2018 Xuhui was also quite active on the land market. According to the interim report, Xuhui Group added 67 new projects in the first half of the year and entered 14 new cities. The total new construction of landfills amounts to approximately 8.69 million square meters.
"We believe that the second half of this year is a good time to conquer the country.On the basis of the market's assessment, the Guangshen area will not participate in the auction of the land market in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year we will increase the angle of the acquisition of land, and in September and October there will be some Action. "The aforementioned regional investment expansion of Shimao Guangshen has been added.
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