Traditional car sales are slowly recovering and the new energy car market will usher in the integration –
The car market has been picked up. New energy vehicles are confronted with "shuffle"
Economic Daily, China Economic Net reporter Liu Wei
In the second quarter of this year, due to factors such as high temperatures, commercial frictions and high stock levels, car sales remained weak and the car market gradually became cold. Industry experts, however, believe that the unfavorable factors are gradually disappearing and that the car market will gradually rise in September and October as the traditional sales season. In addition, new energy vehicles continue to maintain rapid development and product differentiation gradually comes into being. It is expected that after the withdrawal of the subsidy in 2020, the concentration of the new energy vehicles will be improved and that the production companies for entire vehicles will be concentrated within 10 companies –
China Automobile Industry Association recently released data on car sales in August, showing that the number of car produced in August was € 1,999 million, a decrease of 2.10% over the previous month and a decrease of 4.38% compared to the previous month. a year ago; sales amounted to 2.1034 million, an increase of 11.34% over the previous month and a decrease of 3.75% over the same period last year. In this regard, the China Automobile Association said that while revenue growth is still declining, overall performance is in line with expectations at the start of the year.
On the basis of the data, car production declined in August and the sales volume increased rapidly, while the production and sales volume decreased slightly. From January to August, car production and sales remained limited, and growth showed a certain downward trend compared to the previous seven months. The data released by the China Passenger Car Market Information Association seem to be quite serious. In August, car sales, SUV & # 39; s and MPV & # 39; s dropped by 7.4% to 1.76 million units, after a decrease of 5.4% in July.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the association, said that in the near future consumers will have become more cautious about consuming large parts. "The winter of the Chinese car market is coming and the demand for SUVs can continue to fall throughout the year."
There are different voices in the industry for the idea that "the winter is coming". Zhou Yi, assistant researcher at the development department of the Council of State Development Research Center, told the Economic Daily that the production and sales figures for cars in August amount to 105.2%, firstly due to the high stock volume of the past month, the production rate slowed and secondly, due to seasonal factors, sales started to reverse. good.
"In August, car sales figures showed double-digit growth for the first time in a few months of decline, indicating that the market started to recover." Zhou Yi said that the main reason is that the adverse factors affecting sales have in principle been eliminated, and weather factors have increased sales. The conditions are expected to grow well over the next two months.
"The weak sales in the second quarter made the phenomenon of car promotion more common, which resulted in lower general consumption and limited economic driving." Zhou Yi said that the development of the auto industry with the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions has great uncertainties. In the future, the automotive industry will still face challenges in its role in the economy.
New product differentiation of energy carriers
From January to August the production and sales of new energy vehicles amounted to 607,000 and 601,000 respectively, an increase of 75.4% and 88% respectively compared to the same period of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 455,000 and 447,000 respectively, an increase of 60.2% and 71.6% respectively over the same period last year, and their sales represented 73% of total sales of new energy vehicles. , while production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were respectively 15.3. Ten thousand vehicles and 154,000 vehicles were 1.4 times and 1.6 times higher than in the same period of the previous year.
As the data show, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles has maintained a steady growth trend compared to the same period of the previous year. The growth of plug-in hybrid vehicles is still high and gradually seizes the market share of pure electric vehicles.
The China Automobile Association said that plug-in hybrid vehicles started later than purely electric vehicles, but with subsidies for new energy vehicles the government subsidizes plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles with a lower battery life. The gap is no longer obvious and the plug-in hybrid model can reduce the mileage of some users on electric vehicles, making the benefits of plug-in hybrid models clearer.
Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said the forecast of the association for the sale of new energy vehicles this year is more than 1 million vehicles. It could be achieved right now, and some people believe that sales could reach 1.5 million vehicles this year. Come, 1 million, 1.1 million, or even 1.5 million, the difference is not big, because the share of new energy vehicles in the entire automotive market is still small.
Shi Jianhua also said that fuel vehicles will be the main power in the car market in the next 10 years, and traditional fueled vehicles will certainly gradually increase the factors of electrification, intelligence and networking. In the future, the law prohibiting the sale of vehicles with fuel may not have been issued yet and vehicles based on pure fuel may not be present, as the vehicles with fuel also develop into hybrid and intermingled vehicles.
"The differentiation of the new energy car industry will inevitably accelerate under the influence of many parties." Zhou Yi said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is no longer specialized in the production of 30 new companies (the first batch) of new energy vehicles for a period of 12 months or more. The qualification of the production of new energy vehicles was withdrawn. This means that the era of barbarisation in the new energy car industry is over, the future market rules and clearance will further accelerate the differentiation of car companies: it is expected that new manufacturers of energy vehicles will be concentrated in 10 companies after the subsidy closure in 2020.
"The high-end brand of new energy vehicles is starting to exert its power." Zhou Yi believes that Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Porsche have recently released their own brands for pure electric vehicles. If these brands are massively produced in China as expected, this is a new energy vehicle in public opinion. Image and consumption of new energy vehicles will have a strong promotional effect. Zhou Yi believes that the development of new energy vehicles generally still has a long way to go. "In terms of quantity, the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles is just over 100,000, less than 5% of total vehicle sales, technically speaking, recent battery accidents also give electricity to electric vehicles, and it brings a lot of uncertainty: electric vehicles must be compatible. with safety, economy and practicality. As a starting point for guaranteeing safety, the energy density of the battery is increased, the user-friendliness is increased and the costs are continuously reduced.
4S shop face transformation test
"In the huge automobile industry, 4S stores are the most important part of the sales repurchase, due to the current oversupply of the market, sales at the dealers' single stores are low and the gross profit is low, especially in the new energy market. Stage. "Li Jinyong, chairman of the Zhonghai Tongchuang Group, pointed out that as China's car market changes from the seller's market to the buyer's market, the profitability of most 4S stores is steadily decreasing, and the profit from car sales is increasingly diluting, mainly depending on maintenance and other derivatives. Business profitability. At the new energy vehicle management level, if the traditional 4S retail model is used, it will be even more difficult to achieve sustainable profitability. Under these circumstances, car companies have to break through the thinking limitations of traditional 4S stores, enter the shopping mall, build experience stores, use internet thinking, etc., based on tradition and upgrade tradition.
According to Cui Dongshu, the 4S shop system was always regarded as a better model in the traditional sales market for fuel vehicles, but due to the complete change of the new energy vehicle energy system maintenance in the later phase is greatly reduced, so the after-sales service of the traditional car 4S store in the new phase The function has weakened considerably. He said that in the future, 4S stores will become a system that concentrates on sales display and promotion services, and will weaken the function of customer service.
"This kind of transformation is a huge project, it can not be done overnight, it takes at least 3 to 5 years of transition time." Cui Dongshu believes that if the after-sales function is greatly reduced, the operational efficiency of 4S stores will significantly decrease. Therefore, the costs for changing the sales model and the layout mode of the existing 4S stores are still high and the future 4S stores will be dominated by small models for direct store display.