(Source: Panoramic Vision)
Economic Observer Online Internal Reporter Liu Wei The recent rise in rental rates in Beijing has caused concern. Yang Xianling, chief economist of shell-seeking homes, believes that the lack of housing and structural imbalances are the main reasons for the rise in rents in first-tier cities.
Recently, the Shell Research Institute published a series of tracking data on the recent rise in rents in Beijing: Firstly, from the perspective of the rent index, the incomparable factors were removed. In July 2018 the rental index rose by 10.7% on an annual basis; From the average rent level in the first seven months of this year, the average market rent was 86.4 yuan / ping, slightly higher than in the same period last year, the month-on-month increase of 2.6%.
Yang Xianling is of the opinion that rents in Beijing have risen for three reasons: firstly, Beijing has strengthened the supervision of the rental market and concentrated cleaning and dismantling of rented housing that do not comply with fire safety, making the low-end rental properties on the market considerably have been taken away; Young employees have been upgraded from group rents to standardized single rooms, or from regular leases to long-term rental apartments with renovations and services. This is a structural increase of the upgrade process between the old and new leases, and the third is leasing. The population moved to the inner city and the share of high rent levels in the central metropolitan area increased.
However, Yang is now of the opinion that the current rent increase is reasonable.
The & # 39; Recent Rent Revenue Report & # 39; the Shell Research Institute pointed out that the Beijing rental index is reasonable: first, the current rent and the increase in call rates have not increased significantly. In the first seven months of this year, the average market rent was 86.4 yuan / ping, slightly higher than in the same period last year, the balance was in balance. Rents rose by 2.6% in July 2018 and the increase started to narrow. Secondly, the rental index rose by 10.7% on an annual basis in July 2018, slightly higher than the increase in 2015 and 2017, lower than in 2016. The irrational increase occurred: finally, from the rental income ratio, the rental income ratio of the Beijing residents in the first half of 2018 22.2%, slightly higher than in 2015 and 2017, slightly lower than in 2016, still within 30%. range.
"In Beijing, the increase in rents is generally dominated by factors of insufficient supply. If the total amount of the rental offer is sufficient, even a number of structural factors will cause rents to rise, which is often limited and difficult to maintain. " Yang said.
Source: Shell Research Institute
Since the beginning of this year, rents in first-class cities such as Beijing have continued to rise.
Since 2013, the Beijing rent index 100 has broken and has since continued to rise. According to historical data, the increase in the index since 2016 has accelerated considerably and the rental index for the seven months of 2018 is 14 points higher than the full year 2017.
Yang Xianling explained that the lack of housing is reflected in two aspects: first, the absolute level of housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities is high, the proportion of floating population is high, the total population is large and the housing stock itself has a rigid hole. The actual and potential supply capacity of leasing is relatively limited, the second is that most second-rate cities, although the housing stock is relatively high, the ratio of households is around 1, but this already stands for a high price-earnings ratio and a net inflow people in the future. The potential for rental equipment is very limited.
The household ratio is an international indicator for measuring the abundance of residential shares, with an equilibrium of 1.1. The calculation method of the household ratio is the number of complete sets of houses / households with complete kitchen and bathroom.
"In Beijing, for example, the housing stock of the city is about 7.5 million series, totaling around 16 million, which corresponds to almost 22 million permanent residents. The gap is considerable. If the gap is not solved properly, it will term faced with rising rent pressure, Yang said.
According to this ratio, the current household ratio in Beijing is 0.72.
Moreover, according to Yang Xianxuan, there are structural imbalances that manifest themselves in three aspects: one is that affordable, cost-effective leasing supplies are limited, the other is limited, cost-effective leasing, and the third is regional mismatches. The demand for rental is mainly concentrated in the urban core areas, with convenient transport and complete facilities, but the quality of the houses here is often biased and the old and small & # 39; is usually unable to meet the needs of the escalating young employees.
According to the online data from the Shell Research Institute, the number of visits to the grenades and the number of visits to the chain began to fall.
Yang Xianling pointed out that the current rent heat is beginning to decline, and the decline in new passenger sources also indicates that demand will gradually shift to the low season. It is expected that the rent increase will decrease further in August and the rental pressure will decrease periodically.
Yang Xianzheng suggested that we would have to start building a complete rental system from three channels: there are still a large number of inactive private houses in the first market to enter the market, this part of the offer will mainly meet the few and medium-sized youthful servants. The entire rental demand of low-income households, the second is that the supply space of collective building land is very large, only the scattered usage rights must integrate, through uniform planning and management, become a high-quality lease provision, this part of the offer will mainly concern the floating meet people. The third is the inactive country of the company: this part of the country can enter the rental market in a more market-oriented way, which can mainly meet the needs of young employees, civil servants and other people.