Original Title: $ 48! China’s power has reaffirmed its power, and SC is leading a strong oil price breakthrough!
Source: Energy R&D Center
APIA bad report cannot lessen the excitement of the market!
The crude oil market continues to evolve optimistically,The price of SC rose more than 20 yuan for two consecutive days and the price of Brent reached USD 48. The external drive has fully returned to reach when Saudi Arabia started the price war at the beginning of this year. The Brent market has finally returned to premium structure in recent months. In this year, the crude oil price fell all the way from $ 70 to $ 16, eventually returning to $ 48. The process was tortuous. The oil price trend was unimaginable and market participants were also tortured. Ultimately, under the good expectations of the vaccine, Price recovered most of the lost ground.
Not only the price of crude oil, but the performance of US stocks is even more surprising. The Dow Jones Index broke through 30,000 for the first time in history. While the vaccine has not yet been fully commercialized, optimistic expectations can no longer stop enthusiasm for funding. Safe assets like gold and the US dollar are under pressure and the optimism of the entire financial market is making rising crude oil more positive.
Judging from the current situation, the price of crude oil has broken through the upper pressure range all at once, indicating that the market has gone through a process of crucial upward movement. In the future, we want BrentPrices under $ 40 can be very tough. At the early stage, we suggested that the lower end could also hold below $ 40, waiting for a higher price position. From the perspective of technical indicators, the price has risen sharply this time, driven by the high market sentiment of various bullish resonances, and the continued upward movement after the excitement and headspace is up for debate. Therefore, if the Brent price returns below $ 47, investors who have gone short can add a small amount, but it should not be too high.
【1]WTI major crude oil futures closed $ 1.75, or 4.06%, to $ 44.91 a barrel; Brent major crude oil futures closed $ 1.81, or 3.93%, to $ 47.78 a barrel; INE crude oil futures closed 6.64%, reported at 290.6 yuan.
【2]Offshore Renminbi (CNH) reported against the US dollar6．5729Yuan, compared to the last trading day in New York3Period, the whole intraday trade is gone6．5655-6．5969Yuan interval.
【1]Oil price hikes hit their highest levels since March, boosted by vaccine advances and the transfer of Biden; Oil prices rose about 4% on Tuesday, hitting their highest level since March. Optimistic news about the third new crown vaccine candidate boosted demand for oil. Hope for a speedy recovery; moreover, US President-elect Biden can finally start the handover; British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca said on Monday that the effective rate of its new crown vaccine in key studies is 70%, and it is expected to rise to 90%. Bringing the world the third new weapon against the new crown virus; Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna also announced favorable vaccine test data; However, the vaccine will not be available in a few months, meaning that by mid-next year people will still travel and other activities will be restricted to slow the spread of the disease; Again Capital partner John Kilduff said petroleum products are traded based on vaccine news. Before we see the epidemic under control, the market will be deep in demand. The swamp, this will further reinforce the oversupply; ⑤OPEC + is expected to announce after the meeting from November 30 to December 1 that the production cut will continue until next year; alliance technical experts will meet this week to discuss; The General Services Administration Monday, President-elect Biden told the US he can officially begin the handover process; the transfer of US power must be approved by the federal agency.
【2]The US Dow Jones index broke the 30,000 point mark for the first time in history and the energy and banking sectors soared; ① The US Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Index rose above 30,000 points for the first time in history, amid hopes for the new crown vaccine and US presidential power is expected The transfer continued to move the economy towards normalization and enthusiasm in the stock market rekindled; ② Boeing, which dragged the stock index down for most of this year, rose nearly 5% Tuesday, while JPMorgan Chase, American Express and Chevron were up more than 3%. Shares of non-Dow components rose even more: American Airlines and Carnival were both up more than 8%, AMC was up 24%; ③ As of 1:20 pm New York time, the Dow Jones index once climbed 1.77%, breaking the 30,000 mark. It’s been nearly four years since the index first broke 20,000 points. For technical analysts, breaking such a large number as a whole is considered a potential driver of market sentiment, conducive to the pursuit of profit; The Dow and its cyclical components are up 13% since Halloween. The increase is expected to reach its largest since 1987.The increase in the Dow reflects the significant sector rotation in the market in November. As people’s optimism about the economic reboot has increased, sectors such as energy and banks previously constrained by stay-at-home orders have rallied; ⑤ Dennis Debusschere, Head of Portfolio Strategy at Evercore ISI, said, Investors will skip the recent turmoil and turn to positions for the normalization of the economy next year. great companies and everything else has happened. Big changes
【3]Societe Generale expects the average price of Brent crude oil to be US $ 51 / barrel by 2021; Societe Generale analyst Michael Haigh and others wrote a report saying that based on the baseline scenario, the average price of Brent oil is expected to be US $ 51 in 2021. / Barrel, expected to hit $ 55 / barrel next year. Under these conditions, OPEC + is expected to continue to manage supply effectively and the economy and demand to recover; Assuming an upward scenario, the Covid-19 vaccine will increase oil prices to $ 60 a barrel by the end of 2021; in a downward scenario The oil price will fall to $ 35 a barrel
【4]Barclays:The average price of crude oil futures in the US in 2021 is expected to be $ 50; Barclays insists that oil prices will be “higher than consensus” by 2021. It is estimated that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2021 will be $ 53 / barrel and the average price of US crude oil futures will be 50. USD / barrel, as the introduction of the new crown virus vaccine is expected to boost the global economic recovery and boost crude oil demand in the second half of next year; As the global resurgence of the crown virus threatens the global economic recovery, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) will delay the production increase plan originally planned for January next year by at least three months to support the market
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