Pacified Politics of Risk Disintegration? A race against time in Ethiopia

Ethiopia-where-next August 21, 2018 – René Lefort, a keen observer of Ethiopian politics, warns of the dangers in the current political trajectory in Ethiopia. "While so much has changed in so short a time, he says, there is also a lot about the same, including the joining power in the center and unanimous decisions, although talking about tolerance, reconciliation and forgiveness raised the optimisim of Ethiopian people, he says, ethnic divisions, violence and displacement have never been so great.

"The dramatic changes of the last few months have taken Ethiopia away from" the gates of hell, "says the author," but will Abiy Ahmed get sufficient authority to stop the disintegration forces or will they overwhelm him? "

On power vacuum left by Meles Zenawi ::

"The Front drew its strength from a clear strategy, iron discipline and the collection of the Tigrayans behind it, but it has never been restored from the sudden death of Meles Zenawi, his almighty leader, in 2012. The pyramid of power collapsed because it had been built through him and for him. "

A lot of change, but much remains the same:

"One could also have expected an awakening of the institutions of the country, starting with Parliament," the highest authority of the federal government. "Still, it is lying backwards, a meeting apparently under command, for example while Abiy has decided The Parliament unanimously approved the first budget developed for this purpose and showed the same unanimity in granting amnesty to members of organizations that had previously unanimously characterized it as "terrorists". "

"Never since the death of Meles Zenawi has the verticality of power been so great." Abiy Ahmed or his chief of staff announces all major decisions.These are given abruptly and sometimes absent in legal proceedings. No one knows who developed them, which structures were involved, or the main stakeholders were consulted. Apart from Lemma Megersa, president of Oromya, and to a lesser extent Workeneh Gebeyehu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, also an Oromo, no political figure, not even party leaders or ministers, seems to be present on the political scene. Everything seems to come from Abiy. "

Can he effectively govern?

"But is it possible that the Big Man has feet of clay? Can Abiy count on solid channels of authority that are necessary to govern effectively?" It was thought that the end of the big political demonstrations and their cortège of repression would be a return to the law. would mean and wrong order, there had to be the possibility to impose them. "In fact, so many people – almost 3 million – have not been internally displaced for decades, mainly for ethnic and religious reasons."

Click here to read more – René Lefort.

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