Johann Wolfgang von Goethe believed in the healing power of the meal. "When you have eaten and drunk, you are born like new," Goethe promises, "be stronger, bolder, more competent in your cause."
On Tuesday evening Angela Merkel and Andrea Nahles can test the truth of the poetic word. The leaders of the CDU and SPD will have dinner – after the first coalition round after the summer holidays, in which also CSU leader Horst Seehofer, his country group chairman Alexander Dobrindt, group leader Volker Kauder (CDU) and probably deputy chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) take part .
However, it is unlikely that the big coalition will go as new. The SPD is already questioning the alliance born of the plight and the failure of the Jamaican negotiations – and there is no expectation in the Union for the first fall of the GroKo. With senile fatigue a government passes through, which is only half a year old. And she is not sure if she will survive the planned deadline until 2021.
"If the Union does not finally start and projects such as the" Gute-Kita-Gesetz "or a rent-law reform continue to block, then the coalition will only be taken into consideration after the evaluation in the autumn of 2019", says Carsten Schneider, the parliamentary director of the SPD Bundestag faction, in conversation with WELT. In the Good Kita law of Minister of Family Reunification Franziska Giffey (SPD), the Social Democrats want to abolish the allowances and hire more educators. When it comes to rents, the SPD wants to lower the modernization costs that a landlord can demand.
Although the deputy party leader Ralf Stegner spoke in the interview WELT for the stay in the government of the Union. Stegner fears that in the case of new elections the & # 39; influence of the law & # 39; will increase. But Schneider, a member of parliament from Thuringia, sounds very conciliatory: "After the dispute within the European Union about asylum policy, we are patient."
The "dispute within the Union" about Seehofer's "master plan for migration" was actually one between Federal Chancellor Merkel and the Minister of the Interior, almost unison insured by the coalition partner, but certainly not like that between the CDU and CSU. The deputies initially approved most of Seehofer's plans to reject certain groups of refugees at the border, but later gathered behind Merkel. They did not like the CSU politics, the confrontational to the ultimate style of the president.
CDU and CSU want to get along again
Injuries have left the two party leaders from the dispute in the early summer to the master plan & # 39; from the CSU chief about migration. Nonetheless, the work promised by the Union's Sisters to restart without problems, according to the group. The calendar contains a board meeting at the end of next week and a group meeting on 10 September to start the first week of the session.
A problem there is undoubtedly the question put in the weekend by the federal Minister of Finance Scholz to guarantee the current level of pensions not only in 2025, as decided in the coalition agreement. On the contrary, the SPD wants to extend the warranty until 2040.
Merkel and Seehofer rejected this idea in interviews with ARD and ZDF on Sunday in seemingly linguistically agreed formulations and warned the SPD not to stir up any uncertainty.
The CDU deputy Christoph de Vries says to WELT: "It will not help the SPD, according to the motto" in heaven is honest & socio-political benefits as now promises a pension guarantee until 2040. The SPD can also not enforce: "A pension level after cash position should not exist", as well as more and more burdens for future generations. "
De Vries, the Christian Democrat from Hamburg, adds that the "negative signals from the leaders of the CDU and CSU are clear, and even the parliamentary middle class within our group would certainly pull the rope here". Pull pulling cord? This sounds like not only the socio-democraate Schneider can win some of an early end to the coalition. According to the homepage, 161 of the 246 members of the European Union belong to the business-friendly parliamentary group Mittelstand and it is a powerful power in the parliamentary group.
But some things start well. Marco Wanderwitz (CDU), State Secretary of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Interior, assures in the WELT discussion: "The government is working, and we can show some successes." In his ministry, this concerns, in addition to the master plan of his boss Seehofer, the migration policy "the construction costs, the promotion of rental housing and the so-called house commission, in which representatives of the federal government, federal states and municipalities have to prepare the creation of equal living conditions throughout Germany".
But Wanderwitz is also irritated by the new SPD push in social policy. "What really annoys me is the pension dispute, which now breaks the SPD without a struggle and will not add anything to it, we have to be credible and decent in what we demand in politics," says the Saxon MP. "Voters do not believe it when we ask the showcase an unrealistic question and pretend to be able to anticipate an expert committee that has just set up and guarantees the stability of pensions in 2040, without debate about funding."
SPD Secretary General Lars Klingbeil is less satisfied with the coalition's earlier record. "There are many laws in the pipeline that are very important to us, Social Democrats, and we want to implement that now," Klingbeil said on Monday. He hopes they will not fall victim to the Bavarian elections. The Union would be judged on how much of it would be carried out, and that was also the clear line in the meetings of the party presidency and the executive committee. "That is where the Union now has to move."
In the Union it is said that the SPD is currently making some form of conspiracy, even though it is a matter of trifles, and demands extra demands. "They want to enforce as much SPD as possible so that they can tell the voters: look, we have achieved that!" That is why the change at Scholz, which was initially perceived as a conscientious treasurer and "red Schäuble" and now tries to profile yourself as a social politician.
In the Union you do not look too concerned about Hessen, where the new legislative power of the state is elected on 28 October, but very nervous to Bavaria, where voters have two weeks earlier. The current predictions suggest no continuation of the black-green government in Wiesbaden, but Prime Minister Volker Bouffier's CDU is so far ahead that it would in any case be enough for a large coalition.
Black-green in Bavaria?
In Bavaria, however, the end of an era threatens from the perspective of the Union. The CSU is now, since the beginning of July, no longer at 40 per cent in the polls. For a large coalition, it might theoretically be just enough – but if the SPD, as it now stands, should come only in fourth place behind Greens and AfD, it would be difficult to transfer the base. And since Free Voters and FDP provide barely enough percentages and the AfD is still considered non-clean, only the current 15 to 17 percent Greens remained as a coalition partner.
Their top candidate Katharina Schulze assures that the "cynicism" of Seehofer "makes me angry", but she does not rule out a coalition with the Christsozials as Prime Minister Markus Söder and the Greens. In view of these uncertainties, SPD man has etched Carsten Schneider: "At the moment the Union is not fully able to act because it is being held hostage by the CSU because of the election campaign in Bavaria." All in all, this affected the government alliance, according to Schneider: "A big coalition that does not make no sense."
The coalition in Berlin must do more, but also see the politicians of the Union. Group leader Volker Kauder says: "Immediately after the dispute in the early summer we have an increased obligation towards the citizens."