The Germans dream of their own home. According to a recent survey by opinion research agency Civey for SPIEGEL ONLINE, almost 84 percent of respondents would rather live in their own possession than in rent. This includes those who already live in a house and do not regret the purchasing decision.
But the wish is often still far from reality. The percentage of homeowners in Germany is traditionally the lowest in the EU. Only about every second person lives in this country in their own homes or in their own homes.
Simply put, the house is currently unavailable – this is especially true for many large cities. There, driven by low interest rates, a strong real estate boom has started in recent years. In metropolises such as Munich or Berlin, the markets for apartment blocks and houses are now largely empty-handed. And with the increasing demand, purchase prices have also risen considerably. According to the Empirica research institute, the increase between 2009 and 2017 was 61 percent throughout Germany. In Berlin and Munich it increased by about 140 percent in the same period.
Because many people dream of their own home, they plan much less for a specific purchase. According to the Civey survey, a good 16 percent responded to the question of whether an apartment or house in the next five years with & # 39; yes, absolutely & # 39; or & # 39; Quite Yes & # 39; had to be purchased. However, for more than half this is absolutely excluded.
In relation to the total population, the 16 percent potential buyers are still relatively high. After all, anyone who has their own house or is simply too old to be worth a purchase was questioned.
The level of willingness to buy with the relevant target group becomes clear when looking at the evaluation per age group. For example, in the 30- to 39-year-old group, one in three respondents said they wanted to buy "absolute" or "more" in the next five years. Of course there are also people who have already bought or inherited. This can read something like a real estate tree.
The Germans know very well that the prices are already very high in many places. The ubiquitous warnings for a speculative bubble on the property market have ended up in the minds of people. Especially in areas with high or very high population density (ie big cities), according to the Civey survey, more than 70 percent of Germans consider real estate prices to be overvalued. In areas with a very low population density (that is, in rural areas), slightly less than 45 percent see it that way.
And the interviewees assume that the boom will continue. In general, 76.5 percent expects slightly or strongly rising prices over the next five years. In very densely populated areas, the situation is even clearer: in total about 86 percent expect rising prices and even 56 percent expect a strong increase.
The rents, which increase in many places, also provide care for the citizens. In the past year alone, rental apartments were, on average, 4.3% more expensive on a national level. In Berlin the increase was 8.4 percent. And this despite the fact that the politicians have already introduced a rent brake to stop the increase of particularly narrow real estate markets. However, because this instrument does not work as intended and offers too many loopholes for landlords, Minister Katarina Barley of Justice wants to rectify this with a new law.
For most Germans at least what has been decided so far is not enough. According to the Civey survey, a total of 71.5 percent demand that the state intervenes more to curb the rise in rents.
If you look at the political election intentions of the interviewees, it becomes clear that there is a majority for supporters of all parties for a stronger intervention – even though it is extremely scarce among the FDP voters by 50.7 percent. In the case of supporters of the SPD and Left, however, the voice of about 90 percent is very clear in both cases.
Whether it concerns renting or buying – the subject of life is driving many people in Germany. That is why SPIEGEL ONLINE will concentrate this week. In the series Living. Rent. We will talk about the In-Viertel of Germany, people have their say, have found their dream home and discuss when we will discover which architecture is beautiful or ugly. All texts and videos on the subject can be found here during the week.
You can also find more detailed texts about living and real estate on SPIEGEL +:
More about real estate on SPIEGEL +
Notes on the methodology:
The surveys were conducted online in collaboration with the polling station Civey in the period from 7 to 17 August 2018. The sample consisted of more than 5000 respondents, the statistical error being 2.5 percent.
How does the Civey method work?
The polling station Civey works with a fully automated procedure at several levels. All representative real-time surveys are in Germany
Network of more than 20,000 websites ("Riversampling"), so it is not just the interviewed users of SPIEGEL ONLINE. Anyone can participate online in the surveys and will be considered with their answers in the representative result if they have registered. Civey draws from these users a quotation type that ensures that it matches the population, for example in terms of age, gender and population density. Finally, in a third step, the results are weighted based on other socio-demographic factors and the values of participants to correct deformations and prevent manipulation. More information can be found in the frequently asked questions about Civey.
Why is registration necessary?
The registration helps to weigh the answers, enabling a result for the surveys, which is representative of the voting population in Germany. Each participant is asked about his gender, birth year and place of residence. After that, everyone can give their opinion on further surveys on various topics.
How do the results become representative?
Each participant's response is weighted so that the result of a survey is representative of the population. For the Sunday question and the government monitor this population consists of the voter population in Germany. The weighting is done entirely automatically on the basis of the personal data at the registration and the history of previous answers of a user. More methodological details can be found in the Civey whitepaper.
Do you reach enough participants online?
Opinion polls are usually taken by telephone or online. The importance of the results depends on how many people can be reached and how many actually participate in a survey when they are approached. Internet connections and fixed connections are currently just as widespread in Germany – with about 90 percent of households, mobile phones even 95 percent. The willingness to participate in all methods in the range of single-digit percentages, especially experts estimate it for telephone surveys.
So for both methods there is a group of people that can not be reached because they have no connection with the network or do not want to participate in the survey. Therefore, many people must be approached for a meaningful result. Civey surveys are currently in addition to SPIEGEL ONLINE on more than 20,000 other websites involved, including various media. This ensures that as many populations as possible can be reached.
How do I recognize the quality of a result?
Until the results of a survey become representative, enough different people must be involved. Civey ensures that this has already been achieved by specifying a statistical chance of errors for each survey result. The number of participants and the interview time are also published for each study.
What does it mean if the colored areas in the graphical images overlap?
In our graphs the statistical error is displayed as a colored interval. This interval shows the uncertainty that is linked to a rating score. For example, on the Sunday question you can not say exactly how many percent a party would receive in a poll, but specify an interval where the outcome is likely. If the intervals of two measurement values overlap, no pronouncements can be made about the difference. For the Sunday question, this means: If the polling numbers of two parties are so close together that their error intervals overlap, it can not be deduced from those that would currently perform better in the election.
What happens with my data?
The personal data of the users are stored encrypted on German servers and remain secret. They only serve to weigh the answers and ensure that the surveys are not manipulated. To prevent this, Civey uses both statistical and technical methods.
"Who is behind Civey surveys?
At this point, readers in the app and on the mobile / stationary website have the opportunity to participate in a representative Civey survey. Civey is an online opinion polling institute in Berlin. To collect its representative surveys, the company's software, created in 2015, links websites to a nationwide survey network. In addition to SPIEGEL ONLINE include the "Tagesspiegel", "World", "Wirtschaftswoche" and "Rheinische Post". Civey was funded by the ProFit financing program of Investitionsbank Berlin and the European Fund for Regional Development. "