Refugees: Few have the right to continue accusing Bamf

Few refugees have, according to a report, received unfair protection in Germany. In a review by the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (Bamf), the authority has only taken back 0.7% of the asylum decisions that were investigated, the Protection Communication, as the "Süddeutsche Zeitung" ("SZ") reported. Then, in the first half of 2018, more than 43,000 completed test cases ended at 307 with the Bamf depriving the refugees of the protection status already granted.

This is clear from the balance, with which the Federal Ministry of the Interior has responded to a request from the left-wing member of the Bundestag, Ulla Jelpke. Jelpke told the "SZ", it was "politically oriented" that repeatedly gave the impression that there are significant safety deficiencies in the Bamf. "None of this is true."

The high number of exams is a consequence of the cases within the Bamf. In the case of Franco, A. had received a German Bundeswehr soldier as alleged Syrian refugee shelter. At the Bamf branch office in Bremen, the head of the office is suspected of helping hundreds of people make positive decisions.

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How does the Civey method work?

The polling station Civey works with a fully automated procedure at several levels. All representative real-time surveys are in Germany
Network of more than 20,000 websites ("Riversampling"), so it is not just the interviewed users of SPIEGEL ONLINE. Anyone can participate online in the surveys and will be considered with their answers in the representative result if they have registered. Civey draws from these users a quotation type that ensures that it matches the population, for example in terms of age, gender and population density. Finally, in a third step, the results are weighted based on other socio-demographic factors and the values ​​of participants to correct deformations and prevent manipulation. More information can be found in the frequently asked questions about Civey.

Why is registration necessary?

The registration helps to weigh the answers, enabling a result for the surveys, which is representative of the voting population in Germany. Each participant is asked about his gender, birth year and place of residence. After that, everyone can give their opinion on further surveys on various topics.

How do the results become representative?

Each participant's response is weighted so that the result of a survey is representative of the population. For the Sunday question and the government monitor this population consists of the voter population in Germany. The weighting is done entirely automatically on the basis of the personal data at the registration and the history of previous answers of a user. More methodological details can be found in the Civey whitepaper.

Do you reach enough participants online?

Opinion polls are usually taken by telephone or online. The importance of the results depends on how many people can be reached and how many actually participate in a survey when they are approached. Internet connections and fixed connections are currently just as widespread in Germany – with about 90 percent of households, mobile phones even 95 percent. The willingness to participate in all methods in the range of single-digit percentages, especially experts estimate it for telephone surveys.
So for both methods there is a group of people that can not be reached because they have no connection with the network or do not want to participate in the survey. Therefore, many people must be approached for a meaningful result. Civey surveys are currently in addition to SPIEGEL ONLINE on more than 20,000 other websites involved, including various media. This ensures that as many populations as possible can be reached.

How do I recognize the quality of a result?

Until the results of a survey become representative, enough different people must be involved. Civey ensures that this has already been achieved by specifying a statistical chance of errors for each survey result. The number of participants and the interview time are also published for each study.

What does it mean if the colored areas in the graphical images overlap?

In our graphs the statistical error is displayed as a colored interval. This interval shows the uncertainty that is linked to a rating score. For example, on the Sunday question you can not say exactly how many percent a party would receive in a poll, but specify an interval where the outcome is likely. If the intervals of two measurement values ​​overlap, no pronouncements can be made about the difference. For the Sunday question, this means: If the polling numbers of two parties are so close together that their error intervals overlap, it can not be deduced from those that would currently perform better in the election.

What happens with my data?

The personal data of the users are stored encrypted on German servers and remain secret. They only serve to weigh the answers and ensure that the surveys are not manipulated. To prevent this, Civey uses both statistical and technical methods.

Who is behind Civey?

At this point, readers in the app and on the mobile / stationary website have the opportunity to participate in a representative Civey survey. Civey is an online opinion polling institute in Berlin. The start-up works together with various partners, including SPIEGEL ONLINE, as well as the "Tagesspiegel", "Cicero", the "Freitag" and Civey is financed by the ProFit financing program of Investitionsbank Berlin and the European Regional Development Fund,

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