Cyclone Nivar: How Tamil Nadu Braces For Another Storm

Written by Anjali Marar, edited by Explained Desk | Pune |

Updated: Nov 24, 2020 6:58:22 AM

The projected path of the system likely to progress into a severe cyclone storm. (Source: IMD)

Within a week, the second cyclone takes shape in the North Indian Ocean region. The Bay of Bengal will see its second severe cyclone of the year, after the supercyclone Amphan formed in May. It will likely reach the coast of Tamil Nadu by midweek. The next three days will see extremely heavy rainfall, high winds and very rough sea conditions.

Why are Tamil Nadu and Puducherry on ‘red’ alert?

The India Meteorological Service (IMD) is forecasting the development of a cyclone in the South West region of the Bay of Bengal, off the Tamil Nadu coast. After cyclone Gaja in 2018, this will be the second cyclone to cross Tamil Nadu in the past two years.

As of 11:30 am Monday, it remained as a depression about 560 km southeast of Chennai.

The Met department has said it will strengthen into a cyclone. Once intensified, it would get its name ‘Nivar’ proposed by Iran.

When will the cyclone develop, what is its intensity?

The depression will worsen into a cyclone sometime on Tuesday. At this stage, the wind speed will vary from 70 to 80 km / h gusts to 90 km / h.

The cyclone will gain further strength by Wednesday in a Severe Cyclone category (90 to 100 km / h winds up to 110 km / h). 📣 Express Explained is now on Telegram

Satellite image of cyclone Nivar. (Source: IMD)

“It is expected to hit the coast of Tamil Nadu on Wednesday afternoon. The projected trajectory indicates the landward junction between Karaikal and Mamallapuram near Puducherry as a severe cyclonic storm (100 to 110 km / h gusts to 120 km / h), ”said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD.

What bad weather can this cyclone cause for the east coast?

The maximum danger from this cyclone is brought to Tamil Nadu. Extreme weather was supposed to happen here on both Tuesday and Wednesday. In conjunction with the development of the severe cyclone storm, sea conditions in the west-southwest regions of the Bay of Bengal have turned rough to very rough and remain at its worst condition on Wednesday.

With extremely heavy rain – on the order of 20 cm or more, forecast on Wednesday, IMD Tamil Nadu has placed under ‘red’ (take action) alert. In the northern districts, more than 24 cm of rain can fall per day.

Heavy rain (64 to 115 mm) is also forecast over Rayalaseema, Telangana, the Andhra Pradesh coast, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and the southern interior of Karnataka for November 24-26.

Southern Chhattisgarh and Odisha will also be affected by the cyclone with probably some rainfall on November 26-27.

Since Monday, gale-force winds have been in the sea and will gain strength for the next three days.

On Tuesday, winds off the coast of Tamil Nadu at speeds of 65 to 75 mph to 85 mph would prevail. As the cyclone would get closer to the coast and fall into the ‘severe’ category, wind speeds of 100 to 110 km / h to 120 km / h are predicted over northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal. Such strong winds are expected on Wednesdays for a minimum of 12 hours.

At the time of the crossing from the cyclone to land, a storm surge with tidal waves up to one meter above the astronomical tide is expected. This could lead to flooding of low-lying areas. Most of the storm surge would be experienced along the coastal areas between Puducherry and Chennai.

On Wednesday the state of the sea would be high to very unfavorable, causing sea waves up to 10 meters high.

“It is very dangerous for fishermen, sailing ships and also seaports,” said Mohapatra.

Which areas will be affected by the cyclone?

Tamil Nadu’s northern districts will be most at risk. Heavy rain is forecast on Tuesday for Pudukottai, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Karaikal, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Ariyalur and Perambu. On the day of the cyclone that crossed the country, districts like Puducherry, Kallakurchi, Kadalur, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Chengalpattu and Karaikal could register extremely heavy rainfall.

The coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh, Nellore and Chittoor in Rayalaseema, Telangana, southern inland Karnataka will also receive rain from November 24-26 as a result of this cyclone.

What damage is expected in Tamil Nadu?

The IMD has proposed a complete halt to fishing activity in the west-southwest regions of the Bay of Bengal until November 25. Fishermen are advised not to go into the sea for the next three days.

Temporary houses and huts can be damaged. Power and communication lines, trees could be uprooted. Standing crops can be hit by the salty water carried landward by the cyclone.

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