<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "These burn forests, houses and other structures, move thousands people and animals, and cause major disruptions in the lives of people The enormous burden of ordinary firefighting has become task calculation all year round billions of dollarslet alone it cost of destruction. The smoke can cover hundreds or even thousands of miles, impact on air quality and visibility. To many peopleIt has become very clear that man-made climate change plays an important role by greatly increasing the risk of wildfire. "data-reactid =" 19 "> These burn forests, houses and other structures, displace thousands of people and animals and cause major disruptions in people's lives.The enormous burden of ordinary firefighting has become a year-round task that billions of dollars costs, let alone the cost of destruction. The smoke diaper can cover hundreds or even thousands of miles, which affects air quality and visibility. Many people have become very clear that climate change caused by humans plays a major role due to the risk of to significantly increase natural disasters.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Still, it looks like the role of climate change is rarely mentioned in many or even most news stories about the multitude of fires and heat waves. Partly this is because the problem of attribution is usually not clearly. The argument is that there have always been forest fires, and how can we attribute a certain wildfire to climate change? "Data-reactid =" 20 "> Yet the role of climate change rarely appears in many or even the most news stories about the multitude of fires and heat waves, partly because the issue of attribution is usually not clear. The argument is that there is always forest fires, and how can we attribute a certain wildfire to climate change?
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Also see: Sea Diving Robots has done a mysterious discovery of climate change on Antarctica"data reactid =" 21 ">See also: Sea Diving Robots has made a mysterious discovery of climate change on Antarctica
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "As climate scientist I can say that this is the wrong framing of the problem: global warming does not cause forest fires. The closest cause is often human carelessness (cigarette butts, not well-slammed campfires, etc.), or of course, of "dry lightning" where a thunderstorm causes lightning, but little rain. On the contrary, the greenhouse effect exacerbates the conditions and increases the risk of natural fire. "Data-reactid =" 22 "> As a climate scientist, I can say that this is the wrong framing of the problem: global warming does not cause wildfires, is often human negligence (cigarette butts, campfires not properly extinguished, etc.), or Of course, of "dry lightning" where a thunderstorm causes lightning but little rain, on the contrary, the greenhouse effect aggravates the circumstances and increases the risk of natural fire.
Yet there is a huge complexity and variability from one fire to another and therefore the attribution can become complex. Instead, the way to think about this is from the point of view of basic science – in this case physics.
This year again proves to be an active wildfire season.
There is global warming going on
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "To understand the interplay between global warming and forest fires, consider what happens to our planet. "data-reactid =" 33 "> Consider what happens to our planet to understand the interplay between global warming and forest fires.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The composition of the atmosphere changes from human activity: There is more than 40 percent more done in carbon dioxide, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels since the 19th century, and more than half of the increase since 1985. Other heat-absorbing gases (methane, nitrogen oxide, etc.) also increase in concentration in the atmosphere of human activities. The rates are accelerating, not decreasing (as hoped for by the Paris Agreement). data-reactid = "34"> The composition of the atmosphere is changing human activities: there is more than 40% increase in carbon dioxide, mainly due to burning of fossil fuels since the 1800s, and more than half of the increase has been since 1985. Other heat-absorbing gases (methane, nitrous oxide, etc.) also increase in concentration in the atmosphere by human activities. The rates are accelerating, not declining (as hoped by the Paris Agreement).
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "This leads to a energy imbalance for the planet. "data-reactid =" 35 "> This leads to an unbalanced energy for the planet.
The energy flows through the climate system are schematically illustrated with numbers on the values for the top atmosphere and the net imbalance in energy on the surface.
Heat-sealing gases in the atmosphere act as a blanket and prevent the infrared radiation – ie heat from the earth – from entering the room to compensate for the continuous radiation of the sun. As these gases accumulate, more of this energy remains, usually in the form of heat, in our atmosphere. The energy increases the temperature of the land, the oceans and the atmosphere, melts ice, thaws permafrost and feeds the water cycle through evaporation.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "In addition, we can estimates the imbalance of the energy of the earth pretty good: it is about 1 watt per square meter, or about 500 terawatts worldwide. "data-reactid =" 47 "> Moreover, we can estimate the imbalance of the earth's energy fairly well: it amounts to about 1 watt per square meter, or about 500 terawatts worldwide.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Although this factor is small compared to the natural flow of energy through the system, which is 240 watts per square meter, is large compared to all other direct effects of human activities, for example the electricity generation in the US last year an average of 0.46 terawatts. "data-reactid =" 48 "> Although this factor is small compared to the natural flow of energy through the system, which is 240 watts per square meter, it is large compared to all other direct effects of human activities. in the US last year averaged 0.46 terawatt.
The extra heat is always the same sign and is spread all over the world. Accordingly, where this energy accumulates matters.
Follow the imbalance in the energy of the earth
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The heat usually accumulates in the ocean – more than 90 percent. This added heat means the the ocean is growing and the sea level is rising. "data-reactid =" 51 "> The heat eventually accumulates in the ocean – more than 90 percent. This extra heat means that the ocean expands and the sea level rises.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Heat also accumulates in melting ice, causing melting Arctic sea ice and glacier losses in Greenland and Antarctica. This adds water to the ocean, and so on sea level rises this too rises at a rate of more than three millimeters per year, or more than one foot per century. "data-reactid =" 52 "> Heat also accumulates in melting ice, causing melting Arctic sea ice and glacier losses in Greenland and Antarctica This adds water to the ocean, and so also rises the sea level, with a speed of more than three millimeters per year, or more than a foot per century.
Global heat content of the ocean for the top 2000 meters of the ocean, with uncertainty estimates by the pink region.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Onshore the effects of the imbalance in energy are complicated by water.When water is present, the heat mainly goes into evaporation and drying, and that feeds moisture into storms, which produce heavier rain. But the effects do not accumulate, as long as it rains on and off. "Data-reactid =" 61 "> On the land, the effects of the energy imbalance are complicated by water.When water is present, the heat mainly goes to evaporation and drying, and that feeds moisture in storms, which produce heavier rain, but the effects do not accumulate, provided it rains on and off.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "However, in a dry spell or drought, the heat accumulates. First, it dries out, and secondly it increases the temperatures. Of course, "it never rains in Southern California" according to the Pop song from the seventies, at least in the summer half a year. "data-reactid =" 62 "> In a dry period or drought, however, the heat accumulates, never rains in Southern California" according to the pop song from the 1970s, at least in the summer half-year.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "So water acts as the air conditioner of the planet In the absence of water accumulates the excess heat effects on the land, both by drying out everything and fading plants, and by raising the temperature. This in turn leads to heat waves and an increased risk of forest fires.These factors apply in region & # 39; s in the west US and in regions with Mediterranean climates. Many of the recent wildfires occurred not only in the West in the United States, but also in Portugal, Spain, Greece and other parts of the Mediterranean. "Data-reactid =" 63 "> So water acts as the air conditioner of the planet, in the absence of water, the excess heat effects accumulate on the land, both by drying out and fading plants, and by increasing of the temperature.This in turn leads to heat waves and an increased risk of natural fire, regions in the western part of the US and in regions with a Mediterranean climate.Many of the recent forest fires occurred not only in the west in the United States, but also in Portugal, Spain, Greece and other parts of the Mediterranean.
A satellite image of the Carr Fire in California. Drought conditions, in addition to a lot of dead trees and vegetation, contribute to another year of severe forest fires.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The conditions can also develop in other parts of the world • world when strong, high pressure stagnates (anticyclones), as can partly happen by chance, or with increased chances in some weather patterns, such as those determined by La Niña or El Niño events (in different places). It is expected that these dry spots will go from year to year, but that their abundance will increase over time, as is clearly happening. "Data-reactid =" 72 "> Conditions can also develop in other parts of the world if they are strong, high pressure weather domes (anti-cyclones) stagnate, which can partly happen by chance, or with increased chances in some weather patterns such as those have been established by La Niña or El Niño events (in different places), spots are moving from year to year, but their abundance increases with time, as is clearly happening.
How big is the effect of energy imbalance on the land? Well, 1 Watt per square meter per month, if collected, is equal to 720 Watt per square meter for one hour. 720 watts corresponds to the full power in a small microwave. One square meter is about 10 square feet. Therefore, after one month this is equivalent to one microwave at full power, each square foot for six minutes. No wonder things are shooting at the fire!
Attribution Science
Coming back to the original question of forest fires and the greenhouse effect, this explains the argument: there is extra heat available from climate change, and the above indicates how big it is.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "In reality there is moisture in the soil, and plants have root systems that branch off soil moisture and slow down the effects before they begin to wither, so it usually takes more than two months for the effects to be large enough to fully set the stage for forest fires, is small enough to be lost in the normal weather deviation, but after a drying time of more than a month, the risk is noticeably higher. global average surface temperature goes up too. "data-reactid =" 77 "> In reality there is moisture in the soil and plants have root systems that branch off soil moisture and postpone the effects before they begin to wither, so it usually takes more than two months to make the effects big enough to complete set the stage for forest fires: the effect is small enough from day to day to be lost in the normal weather change, but after a drying time of more than a month the risk is noticeably higher and of course the surface temperature also rises worldwide.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "" We can not assign any event to climate change "is already a mantra of climate scientists for a long time changedhowever. "data-reactid =" 78 ">" We can not attribute any event to climate change "has long been a mantra of climate scientists, but has recently changed.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "As in the example of the forest fires, there is a realization that climate scientists can make possible useful explanations by assuming that the weather conditions themselves are relatively unaffected by climate change. This is a good assumption. "Data reactivity =" 79 "> As in the forest fires example, there is a realization that climate scientists may be able to make useful statements by assuming that the weather conditions themselves are relatively unaffected by climate change, which is a good assumption.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Also climate scientists can not say that extreme events are due to global warming of the earth, because that is a bad question, but we can say that it is very likely that without the global warming they would not have had such an extreme impact, because all weather conditions are influenced by climate change. because the environment in which they occur warmer and more humid than before. "data-reactid =" 80 "> Climate scientists can not say that extreme events are the result of the greenhouse effect, because that is a bad question, but we can say that it is very likely that they are not so. extremely extreme situation would have had effects without global warming Indeed, all weather conditions are affected by climate change, because the environment in which they occur is warmer and more humid than before.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Especially by focusing on Earthly energy imbalanceit is expected that new research will lead to a better understanding of what is going on, and why, and what it entails for the future. "data-reactid =" 81 "> Particularly by concentrating on Earth's Energy Imbalance, new research is expected to advance the understanding of what is happening, and why, and what it entails for the future.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "This article was originally published on The conversation of Kevin Trenberth. Read the original article here."data reactid =" 82 ">This article was originally published on The Conversation by Kevin Trenberth. Read the original article here.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Photos & # 39; s via Climate Central, & nbsp; CC BY-NC, Trenberth et al 2009, ScienceAdvances, & nbsp; CC BY-NC, NASA, Glenn Beltz / Flickr"data reactid =" 83 ">Photos via Climate Central, CC BY-NC, Trenberth et al 2009, ScienceAdvances, CC BY-NC, NASA, Glenn Beltz / Flickr
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