Met Eireann has warned that “much colder” conditions are on the way from the middle of next week as a major winter turn is expected.
While Carlow Weather’s Alan O’Reilly has also released an urgent update on a forecast model showing snowfall during a storm in early December.
The weather expert said the ECMWF model for December 5 is “a great outlier” and that sharing the forecast without context is “just silly.”
He explained, “The nighttime run of the ECMWF model shows a storm in 9 days of snow. * But * the ensembles show that this is a great outlier. That’s the main run shown which is well beyond the average of the weather models, the black line on the first picture shows this.
“The average run here, as you can see, is completely different. In other words, ignore all online predictions based solely on this one model run that doesn’t seem to be in line with all the others and even the average on the same model.
“It’s silly to share the model prediction without understanding and sharing it within the context of the ensembles.”
Meanwhile, a frigid night is on the horizon tonight with temperatures dropping to -2C.
A Met Eireann forecaster said: “A cold start with fog and frost in places. It will be a mostly dry, but rather dull day, with remote showers on the coast. Temperatures this afternoon of only 3 to 6 degrees in the north, up to 8 degrees to the south, the wind is slightly southerly or variable in direction.
“Tonight there will be light rain and drizzle in the south and east, later when the clouds get thicker there, in general the weather will be a mostly dry night and with clear skies the temperatures will drop to between minus 2 and plus 2 degrees. , fog can form again and clog in pieces.
“Tomorrow it will be cloudy on Saturday with occasional light rain and drizzle. Temperatures will generally be between 5 and 7 degrees and will rise to 9 to 11 degrees later in the day in the south. The easterly wind will be light to moderate. to be.
“There will be isolated showers on Sunday, but generally a dry day with cloudy conditions. Temperatures will be between 9 and 11 degrees with variable light; wind. Temperatures will drop to between 3 and 5 degrees at night.”
But next week we’ll start to see a change, with “much colder” weather expected from Wednesday.
A forecaster added: “ Monday will be mostly dry for a while with some clearer weather for the morning in the south and east, cloud cover in the northwest will cause rain there, otherwise a generally dry day again with temperatures of 9 or 10 degrees with a moderate southwest wind, sometimes gets chilly in the north. Little change in temperature at night because it remains cloudy but mostly dry.
Tuesday will also be cloudy and mostly dry with afternoon temperatures of around 10 degrees with light winds turning westward.
“Current indications suggest there will be little change to start Wednesday, but there is a sign that the week will end much colder.”