The Australian dollar is crumbling



  • The Australian dollar has opened the new trading week at its lowest level since the beginning of January 2016.
  • The AUD / USD has now lost 11.6% at the end of January.
  • A number of important Australian economic data are released today, although the question is how much impact it will have on the Aussie.

The Australian dollar is under pressure and opens the new trading week at the lowest level since early January 2017 on Monday.

Here is the scoreboard at 7.55 in Sydney.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = " AUD / USD 0.7189, -0.0001, -0.01%
AUD / JPY 79.86, -0.03, -0.04%
AUD / CNH 4.9193, -0.0039, -0.08%
AUD / EUR 0.6193, -0.0009, -0.15%
AUD / GBP 0.5553, 0.0019, 0.34%
AUD / NZD 1.0853, 0.0019, 0.18%
AUD / CAD 0.9394, 0.0011, 0.12% "data-reactid =" 25 "> AUD / USD 0.7189, -0.0001, -0.01%
AUD / JPY 79.86, -0.03, -0.04%
AUD / CNH 4.9193, -0.0039, -0.08%
AUD / EUR 0.6193, -0.0009, -0.15%
AUD / GBP 0.5553, 0.0019, 0.34%
AUD / NZD 1.0853, 0.0019, 0.18%
AUD / CAD 0.9394, 0.0011, 0.12%

The combination of increased trade barriers between the United States and Canada, further weakness in currencies of emerging markets and capital flows at the end of the month, depressed the Australian dollar on Friday, while the AUD / USD fell below the previous support with 72 cents to close at the weakest level since January 2 last year.

"Markets ended the month of August with a sense of unease as Canada and the US were unable to reach a deal for a NAFTA rewrite," said Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX strategist at the National Australia Bank.

"Both parties agreed to keep talking and the negotiations will resume on Wednesday with a deal that is still expected, but probably later in the month.

"Trump was not satisfied with the result, but hit Twitter on Saturday and smashed the decades of Canada's assault and threatened to go back to the pre-NAFTA if no agreement was reached."

Catril said the news helped the rise of the US dollar through the renewed safe harbor flows, contributing to the weakness in both the emerging markets and the Australian dollar.

"The big dollar was the main beneficiary of these worries on Friday with fragility in emerging-market stocks that also play a supporting role," he said.

"The MSCI index for emerging markets fell by 0.20% on the day and ended the month of August with more than 2%, the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

"News that Canada failed to close an agreement with the US dragged the AUD / USD down slightly to 50 pips over the course of the day of 0.7176 before a small recovery in the closed pair month ended at 0.7192, the lowest monthly lock since February 2016. "

The AUD / USD lost 3.2% in May and extended the slide from the end of January this year to 11.6%.

Catril says that the fragility of emerging markets, amid increasing uncertainty about President Trump's next move on trade policy, means the Aussie dollar appears vulnerable to further downward pressure in the coming period.

"Technically, the AUD is on a declining trend and supporting the daily lows of May and December 2016 does not seem robust enough to halt the decline if we are hit by hostile trade news this week," he says.

"Looking at the graph, a move below the low of 0.7145 in May 2016 opens an easy way for the AUD to take a look below 70 cents … [given] the likelihood that the other big three Australian banks will sooner or later follow Westpac in canceling their variable mortgage interest rates. "

Given that background, Catril sees that the new week is probably a "difficult" for the Aussie.

Although a broader investor sentiment is likely to continue to steer the Aussie's movements, the short-term direction of today can be influenced by the introduction of large economic data versions at home and abroad.

In Australia, the markets will receive retail sales in July, along with the PMI report from the Ai Group, the hedonic house price index of CoreLogic and ANZ vacancies for August.

The ABS will also release a number of Q2 GDP inputs at 11.30AM AEST for the actual GDP release of Australia on Wednesday.

Regionally, a series of PMI reports for the industry will be released for August, including from China and Japan.

Later in the session, the data highlights include PMI reports for production from Europe and the UK.

Financial markets in the US and Canada are closed for holidays on public holidays.


Source link

The Australian dollar is crumbling



  • The Australian dollar has opened the new trading week at its lowest level since the beginning of January 2016.
  • The AUD / USD has now lost 11.6% at the end of January.
  • A number of important Australian economic data are released today, although the question is how much impact it will have on the Aussie.

The Australian dollar is under pressure and opens the new trading week at the lowest level since early January 2017 on Monday.

Here is the scoreboard at 7.55 in Sydney.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = " AUD / USD 0.7189, -0.0001, -0.01%
AUD / JPY 79.86, -0.03, -0.04%
AUD / CNH 4.9193, -0.0039, -0.08%
AUD / EUR 0.6193, -0.0009, -0.15%
AUD / GBP 0.5553, 0.0019, 0.34%
AUD / NZD 1.0853, 0.0019, 0.18%
AUD / CAD 0.9394, 0.0011, 0.12% "data-reactid =" 25 "> AUD / USD 0.7189, -0.0001, -0.01%
AUD / JPY 79.86, -0.03, -0.04%
AUD / CNH 4.9193, -0.0039, -0.08%
AUD / EUR 0.6193, -0.0009, -0.15%
AUD / GBP 0.5553, 0.0019, 0.34%
AUD / NZD 1.0853, 0.0019, 0.18%
AUD / CAD 0.9394, 0.0011, 0.12%

The combination of increased trade barriers between the United States and Canada, further weakness in currencies of emerging markets and capital flows at the end of the month, depressed the Australian dollar on Friday, while the AUD / USD fell below the previous support with 72 cents to close at the weakest level since January 2 last year.

"Markets ended the month of August with a sense of unease as Canada and the US were unable to reach a deal for a NAFTA rewrite," said Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX strategist at the National Australia Bank.

"Both parties agreed to keep talking and the negotiations will resume on Wednesday with a deal that is still expected, but probably later in the month.

"Trump was not satisfied with the result, but hit Twitter on Saturday and smashed the decades of Canada's assault and threatened to go back to the pre-NAFTA if no agreement was reached."

Catril said the news helped the rise of the US dollar through the renewed safe harbor flows, contributing to the weakness in both the emerging markets and the Australian dollar.

"The big dollar was the main beneficiary of these worries on Friday with fragility in emerging-market stocks that also play a supporting role," he said.

"The MSCI index for emerging markets fell by 0.20% on the day and ended the month of August with more than 2%, the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

"News that Canada failed to close an agreement with the US dragged the AUD / USD down slightly to 50 pips over the course of the day of 0.7176 before a small recovery in the closed pair month ended at 0.7192, the lowest monthly lock since February 2016. "

The AUD / USD lost 3.2% in May and extended the slide from the end of January this year to 11.6%.

Catril says that the fragility of emerging markets, amid increasing uncertainty about President Trump's next move on trade policy, means the Aussie dollar appears vulnerable to further downward pressure in the coming period.

"Technically, the AUD is on a declining trend and supporting the daily lows of May and December 2016 does not seem robust enough to halt the decline if we are hit by hostile trade news this week," he says.

"Looking at the graph, a move below the low of 0.7145 in May 2016 opens an easy way for the AUD to take a look below 70 cents … [given] the likelihood that the other big three Australian banks will sooner or later follow Westpac in canceling their variable mortgage interest rates. "

Given that background, Catril sees that the new week is probably a "difficult" for the Aussie.

Although a broader investor sentiment is likely to continue to steer the Aussie's movements, the short-term direction of today can be influenced by the introduction of large economic data versions at home and abroad.

In Australia, the markets will receive retail sales in July, along with the PMI report from the Ai Group, the hedonic house price index of CoreLogic and ANZ vacancies for August.

The ABS will also release a number of Q2 GDP inputs at 11.30AM AEST for the actual GDP release of Australia on Wednesday.

Regionally, a series of PMI reports for the industry will be released for August, including from China and Japan.

Later in the session, the data highlights include PMI reports for production from Europe and the UK.

Financial markets in the US and Canada are closed for holidays on public holidays.


Source link

The Australian dollar is crumbling



  • The Australian dollar has opened the new trading week at its lowest level since the beginning of January 2016.
  • The AUD / USD has now lost 11.6% at the end of January.
  • A number of important Australian economic data are released today, although the question is how much impact it will have on the Aussie.

The Australian dollar is under pressure and opens the new trading week at the lowest level since early January 2017 on Monday.

Here is the scoreboard at 7.55 in Sydney.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = " AUD / USD 0.7189, -0.0001, -0.01%
AUD / JPY 79.86, -0.03, -0.04%
AUD / CNH 4.9193, -0.0039, -0.08%
AUD / EUR 0.6193, -0.0009, -0.15%
AUD / GBP 0.5553, 0.0019, 0.34%
AUD / NZD 1.0853, 0.0019, 0.18%
AUD / CAD 0.9394, 0.0011, 0.12% "data-reactid =" 25 "> AUD / USD 0.7189, -0.0001, -0.01%
AUD / JPY 79.86, -0.03, -0.04%
AUD / CNH 4.9193, -0.0039, -0.08%
AUD / EUR 0.6193, -0.0009, -0.15%
AUD / GBP 0.5553, 0.0019, 0.34%
AUD / NZD 1.0853, 0.0019, 0.18%
AUD / CAD 0.9394, 0.0011, 0.12%

The combination of increased trade barriers between the United States and Canada, further weakness in currencies of emerging markets and capital flows at the end of the month, depressed the Australian dollar on Friday, while the AUD / USD fell below the previous support with 72 cents to close at the weakest level since January 2 last year.

"Markets ended the month of August with a sense of unease as Canada and the US were unable to reach a deal for a NAFTA rewrite," said Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX strategist at the National Australia Bank.

"Both parties agreed to keep talking and the negotiations will resume on Wednesday with a deal that is still expected, but probably later in the month.

"Trump was not satisfied with the result, but hit Twitter on Saturday and smashed the decades of Canada's assault and threatened to go back to the pre-NAFTA if no agreement was reached."

Catril said the news helped the rise of the US dollar through the renewed safe harbor flows, contributing to the weakness in both the emerging markets and the Australian dollar.

"The big dollar was the main beneficiary of these worries on Friday with fragility in emerging-market stocks that also play a supporting role," he said.

"The MSCI index for emerging markets fell by 0.20% on the day and ended the month of August with more than 2%, the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

"News that Canada failed to close an agreement with the US dragged the AUD / USD down slightly to 50 pips over the course of the day of 0.7176 before a small recovery in the closed pair month ended at 0.7192, the lowest monthly lock since February 2016. "

The AUD / USD lost 3.2% in May and extended the slide from the end of January this year to 11.6%.

Catril says that the fragility of emerging markets, amid increasing uncertainty about President Trump's next move on trade policy, means the Aussie dollar appears vulnerable to further downward pressure in the coming period.

"Technically, the AUD is on a declining trend and supporting the daily lows of May and December 2016 does not seem robust enough to halt the decline if we are hit by hostile trade news this week," he says.

"Looking at the graph, a move below the low of 0.7145 in May 2016 opens an easy way for the AUD to take a look below 70 cents … [given] the likelihood that the other big three Australian banks will sooner or later follow Westpac in canceling their variable mortgage interest rates. "

Given that background, Catril sees that the new week is probably a "difficult" for the Aussie.

Although a broader investor sentiment is likely to continue to steer the Aussie's movements, the short-term direction of today can be influenced by the introduction of large economic data versions at home and abroad.

In Australia, the markets for July will receive retail sales data, together with the PMI report from the Ai Group, the price index for hedonic houses from CoreLogic and ANZ vacancies for August.

The ABS will also release a number of Q2 GDP inputs at 11.30AM AEST for the actual GDP release of Australia on Wednesday.

Regionally, a series of PMI reports for the industry will be released for August, including from China and Japan.

Later in the session, the data highlights include PMI reports for production from Europe and the UK.

Financial markets in the US and Canada are closed for holidays on public holidays.


Source link

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