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Changes in international policy and their impact on the Arab world



The transformation of international politics in the Middle East is an important and effective factor in the political transformations in the region and in the relationships, conflicts and alliances in which they are formed. Given the strategic changes that have taken place in the policies of the international system over the last five years, understanding and analyzing the dimensions of these transformations and their implications for the Arab world is an important basis for strategic and future thinking on Arab issues, the future of the Arab world and its regional and international role, – Israeli and Arab-Israeli relations, in addition to the transformations of relations between Arab countries and other countries in the region, in particular Turkey, Iran and Ethiopia. Therefore, striving for a conceptualization of the shift in international policy (the United States, Russia, the European Union and China) and the most prominent implications for the region is the goal of this important analysis.

In this context, US policy in dealing with what is known as the state organization in Iraq and Syria has been an important element in the military and political transformations in the performance of the United States in the region, specifically since 2014, and in dealing with with the Iranian nuclear file in cooperation with the European Union and Russia, as well as Obama & # 39; s second term, about democratic reform programs in the region and the resurgence of support for undemocratic regimes, a decline that is stronger and more apparent came during President Trump's government; democratization and human rights are no longer priorities of United Nations programs or state policy.

But the biggest transformations have been in the era of the new American government since the beginning of 2017, where the counter-terrorism file all other files in the region from the perspective of this administration, and American policies have undergone a shift in dealing with Iran and its nuclear file, and with the Arab Gulf states and their role in bearing the consequences of American protectionism policy against Iran, and its mobilization against Iran as a later stage in what is known as the attempt to "Arab NATO" to build. There have also been changes in US policy in dealing with the Palestinian issue in the Syrian file, especially with regard to the Kurds of Syria and the Kurdish role therein, and Turkey's role in resolving the Syrian crisis.

The transformation of US government policy in dealing with the Palestinian issue has become a major turning point in US policy towards the region. The United States thought and acted on three axes: the first was to mobilize the Gulf states behind the US visions that the biggest threat was Iran, not Israel, it tried to support the economic and financial Gulf states and tempt them through the withdrawal of the United States of the nuclear agreement with Iran, The Gulf States, together with Israel, set off the Iranian threat. Second, direct pressure on the Palestinians and Jordanians to get the so-called & # 39; Deal of the Century & # 39; accept without even going into details or listening to their opinions to change them, and using the pressure of the Gulf States to achieve this. At the same time, the problem of the Gaza Strip only changes from occupation and siege to a humanitarian problem. Third, it is in line with the extreme right-wing orientations of the Golan as an Israeli territory and occupies Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, Israel declared them unilaterally in 1981 and 1982. This is in line with the Israeli Party's conviction of cooperation in achieving some economic and civil rights, and some changes in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, in exchange for Arabs and Palestinians accepting annexation of Jerusalem and the Golan Heights and settlements on the West Bank and the outbuildings. Given that the new US administration has taken its positions individually and is contrary to all relevant international resolutions and the views of earlier US administrations.

The United States has rejected these explicit American and Palestinian rejections and accepted an official Arab position, but with non-public contacts with Israel and even normalization of relations with some Arab countries. Consistent with the US-Israeli orientation, which was considered a response to US policy in the region.

Therefore, these new American attitudes are working on disrupting the Arab position, and on emptying the content of the Palestinian cause through practical means and to establish the status quo, according to a number of Arab leaders who are open to the deal. It will also circle the Palestinian and Jordanian positions, even the Arab ones. Despite the importance of these two positions, they are decisive in the Arab world, but the views of a number of Arab countries are consistent with and unambiguous with the new US policy, while the extreme Israeli law reaps the benefits, continues the intimidation program and emphasizes politics and security in dealing with the Palestinians. In addition, the United States is exerting economically burdensome measures and policies on the Palestinian and Jordanian side to break their position.

In the Russian Federation, its role in the region increased as a result of its direct military intervention in the Syrian crisis in 2015. Its role increased in light of its increasing coordination with the United States and Israel, and Russian-Israeli relations progressed. to the extent that the Israeli factor became essential in Russian military policy and security in Syria and the region, and so far that Russia is working on the discovery of the bodies of Israeli soldiers killed in previous wars between Russia and Israel. In contrast, Russia has not played an active role in the political pressure on Israel and the United States in the Palestinian affair, although its voting behavior in the United Nations provides almost support for resolving the issue in accordance with international legitimacy and Israeli unilateral action against the reject the status of the occupied territories In 1967.

The Russian role in the region has also grown in the light of the interests and policies of Iran and Turkey. The success of Russian policies in changing the theater of operations and the political process in supporting the Syrian regime and the Restoring control in exchange for the loss of the armed opposition was a strategic strength for Russia.

On the other hand, the Russian policy of openness for the countries in the region, including the Arabian Gulf states, Jordan and Egypt, has undergone a major shift in American areas of influence. Despite the consensus between Russia and the United States on the Syrian issue, but the United States began to feel the problems caused by the expansion of the sale of Russian weapons to a number of countries in the region, mainly based on armaments in the United States. States. The purchase by Turkey of advanced Russian defense missiles was a crisis between Turkey and the United States, although the position of the NATO secretary was not against the deal and Turkey was right to diversify its weapon sources unless it posed a security risk to NATO. Russia opened the gas file in the Mediterranean, restored its strategic relations with Turkey to transport gas, opened the possibility for transformations in Russian relations in the region, and thus helped regain its role if a major player did not clash with the United States, but does not fully agree, extra.

The European Union, which is an economic and political force in the world, is generally not seen as a counterbalance for the United States, but in many of its policies, especially with regard to issues in the Middle East. However, the Union has objected to certain US policies in the region, which sees a neighborhood, where instability can have a major impact on its security and stability, whether due to migration waves or others.

China remains a global economic power that competes with the United States. Although his voting behavior in the United Nations is consistent with Russia vis-à-vis the United States and the rest of the Western countries, his political role in the world and the Middle East remains limited and is characterized by a policy of positive neutrality.

The shift in international policy has political and security implications with significant consequences for the region. One of the most prominent political consequences: the Arab decision to take over international intervention in more than one Arab country, in particular in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya, as well as the growing role of non-Arab countries in the region at the expense of from the Arab countries, and referred to Israel, Turkey, Iran and Ethiopia. In addition, the rich Arab countries are responsible for the reconstruction of Syria, the resettlement of refugees, the reconstruction of Yemen and the financing of anti-terrorism campaigns.

The Palestinian issue is an important chapter in the transformation of this policy. The US government is directly dismantling the Palestinian issue and going beyond the relevant international resolutions, this is done by a full bias of the extreme Israeli right wing that Israel is facing. reigns the fourth time in a row, And spreading the violation of security and instability in the region, and the gap between Arab countries and blackmail.

Regarding the Syrian crisis, international policies and developments have weakened the Syrian factor at the level of the regime and the opposition and even include the regional factor of Turkey and Iran, and to some extent Jordan. , Which raises the question of the degree of independence that the parties to the conflict in the Syrian crisis have sought in the light of this transformation, and its risks for the future of increasing international influence and military presence in the region in coordination with Israel, to add Syria geopolitics to the Arab Gulf geopolitics in the balance of international power Future international conflict.

In the context of the security implications of changes in international politics, the terrorist file has become the most important file in the region, to the extent that it has become the cornerstone of the international community's view of the crises in the region, in particular the Syrian crisis, which has influenced the other dimensions of these crises, whatever political, social, legal and economic dimensions. These international transformations have also led to the continuation of conflicts within the Arab states, and Libya is a clear matter in this context.

Given the developments in the role and influence of the international and regional non-Arab factor in the security and influence arrangements in the region, the changes in international policy continue to work against the Arab project, the Arab Renaissance and Arab independence. Differentiated and sometimes conflicting Arab alliances are a lever for such a weakness in the role. Internal conflicts, the demise of democracy, the continuing marginalization of political opposition in some Arab countries and the security prosecutions in others are also a factor in weakening Arab regional and international influence and role, which has a negative impact on advocacy, stability or prosperity. This has led to more opportunities for regional factors, of which Israel is the largest participant in the formation of regional security, sometimes with the Arab will, not to mention the growing regional role of Turkey, Iran and Ethiopia at the expense of the Arab role, making the collective Arab national security system very fragile. It also influences the national security structure of each country, with divisions that have spread to Arab regional groups such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Maghreb Union.

However, there is still an opportunity for the Arab world based on three axes: to regain part of the initiative in managing Arab affairs and achieving the highest interests and maintaining national security. The policy of bullying and fighting for the role that only serves chaos and unrest in the Arab countries, as we see today. The second is to implement internal reconciliations based on partnership, to build the national community and political partnership in the governance of the country, to make crucial decisions and to empower the population under external pressure, and to turn to different democratic paths that suit each country, its culture and history and the nature of its regime without delay. The third is to restore the unity of the Arab position vis-à-vis the Palestinian cause as the nation's most important and central issue, to halt the normalization of relations with the Israeli occupation and to call on the troops to change US policy with which to resolve the issue in the so-called agreement of the century. Including the United States, to withdraw from these unsustainable and destabilizing roads to stability in the region.

All published articles reflect the opinion of their authors and do not necessarily represent an opinion "Arabic 21"


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