By the end of 2018 or at the beginning of 2019. It confirms that the increase in the FED rate and the strength of the dollar would raise the exchange rate, which rose 2% in October.
Although inflation in Peru is among the lowest in the region (2%), the monetary policy of the United States could affect the Peruvian economy, forcing the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) to increase inflation. reference before the end of 2018 or the beginning of 2019, estimated the Institute for Economics and Business Development (IEDEP) of the Chamber of Commerce of Lima.
The Federal Reserve of the United States (FED) recently raised its reference interest rate in a range of 2% to 2.25%, a comparison with the Peruvian reference interest rate (2.75%) is 50 points, the least spread registered since November 2007.
"In this context, the BCR will have to evaluate when to respond to increases in FED rates with an increase in the reference interest rate, taking into account the evolution of inflation (2% within the target range) and the low growth rate of the Peruvian economy. , where the latter only achieved growth of 2.4% in the third quarter of 2018, "said César Peñaranda, Executive Director of the IEDEP of the Lima Chamber of Commerce.
He added that the increase in the FED rate generates the outflow of capital (dollars from the country) which, in addition to the lower risk, pursue more financial performance in the United States. For this reason, he said, the sol exchange rate for the dollar, near S / 3.40, would rise, as the exchange rate rose by 2% in October.
"This makes the internal panorama difficult, because it must be borne in mind that bank loans have a high dollarization rate, mainly in three activities: fishing (91.2%) mining (78%) and agriculture (61.5%), which are affected by an impairment of the Sun. Moreover, this rise in the dollar and the fall of the sun may shift to prices that lead to higher inflation, "said the economist.
For Peñaranda, the control of inflation by the BCR gives him the scope to maintain its course at the current level. It notes, however, that in the country the interest rates in dollars record an increase which is in line with the higher EDF percentage. "This could lead to a larger dollarization of the economy and therefore start a gradual increase in the reference interest rate, which is currently below the neutral level," he noted.