Economist at Ipea says that GDP growth of 0.2% was no surprise

The growth of 0.2% of gross domestic product (GDP, sum of all goods and services produced in the country) in the second quarter of this year, compared to the previous quarter, was not surprising for economists of the Institute for extensive economic research (IPEA). "The value itself is not a big surprise", he said today (31) against Privacy policy the Planning and Research technician at Ipea Leonardo de Carvalho.

The truck drivers' strike affected the result in a timely manner, according to the economist. "Although the activity returned in June, you ultimately have an impact on the average of the quarter."

Ipea also noticed a slowdown in activity due to other factors. Among them, Leonardo Carvalho emphasized the labor market, which, although it is still improving, is still developing at a rather slow pace. "Looking at the National Household Sample Survey (Pnad), you do not see much formal employment, the recovery is still very slow on the labor market and this eventually leads to a stronger recovery in demand."

Another factor that, according to the economist, influenced GDP was the external scenario, in terms of assets such as the exchange rate. The deterioration observed in the economists' evaluation in some countries, such as Turkey and Argentina, ultimately led in the end to increasing risk aversion for emerging countries. "I would say that the external scenario, which was very benign, has deteriorated a bit and ultimately helps to explain the result of economic activity in Brazil."

Still according to the economist, net exports contributed negatively, both in comparison with the adjustment and in the same quarter. "The decline in the corn crop can explain the negative impact on exports," he said.

Ipea also noted this in the numbers of the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers (Anfavea), with a reversal of the export trajectory of some manufactured goods, such as cars, due to the crisis in Argentina, an important market for Brazil. .

elections

A third important element to explain the economic situation, according to the researcher, is the electoral uncertainty, which should contribute to reducing or delaying a small number of investment decisions, acquiring durable goods with regard to borrowing and credit. Leonardo Carvalho predicts that the third quarter and the second half of this year should be influenced by the issue of elections and, by extension, the expectation of reforms. "We have to see if the successful candidate will or will not commit to the reforms, because this affects the market, it influences the exchange."

Services and trade

Leonardo Carvalho emphasized the contribution of the services sector, in the order of 0.8 percentage point, to the result of GDP in the second quarter. "It is a positive result because the services sector has a greater inertia and has a greater contribution potential to the activity." The result could have been greater if the transport segment, with the number of trucks running, was not affected by the truckers' strike, according to the researcher.

In the trade, consumption on the demand side showed a modest growth of 0.1%. There was also an increase in inflation, especially food and fuel. "All in all, the impact of the strike was very widespread, with some sectors having more members than others, such as industry, but (the services sector) helped a lot to explain this 0.2%. [do PIB] and 1% on the same basis of comparison, "he said Leonardo Carvalho said there is still fear of employment and the perception of difficulties in finding work in the country These things tend to make consumer decisions and credit decisions. 39; content & # 39 ;, despite the easing of the basic interest rate of the country, the Selic.

investments

With regard to Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), which serves as an investment indicator, the second quarter fell by 1.8% compared to the previous quarter, but compared to the same period in 2017, the rate rose by 3.7%%. . Leonardo Carvalho said that although this number is positive, the level of the rate is low. "In terms of the number, the variation is positive, but it would not be a threshold that we consider ideal to enable greater sustainable growth." We have a shortage of productivity growth that allows us to increase the most relevant potential GDP. "

Leonardo Carvalho also stressed positively that GDP has grown under domestic demand, which means consumption and investment. "These components are more taxable than exporting and importing, and we are growing into components that generate more tax, which has a positive effect on sales, while the same pattern occurred in the second quarter: domestic demand grew more than GDP. have domestic demand above GDP, but if you include the negative contribution of net exports, you get that 1% growth, with that positive impact on sales. "

In the second half of September, IPEA is expected to review the GDP projections for the third quarter and for the years 2018 and 2019.

edition: Fernando Fraga