NOVOSIBIRSK, August 28. / TASS /. Oil prices may fall to $ 55-60 per barrel by the end of 2018 – early 2019, much will depend on the development of the situation surrounding the possible introduction of sanctions against Iran, said vice-president Vnesheconombank Andrei Klepach.
"Yes, we expect a decrease [цены на нефть]. Although it is higher than most predictions and expectations. We think it should reduce to $ 50-plus- $ 60, the question is how sanctions will work against Iran and how they will affect the oil industry, how Saudi Arabia will behave, which is likely to compensate for possible supply restrictions. I think somewhere up to $ 55-60 [за баррель] the price will disappear ", he told TASS on the sidelines of the Technoprom forum.
At the same time, Klepach noted that Saudi Arabia is interested in sufficiently high oil prices for the IPO of Saudi Aramco. "That's why I do not think the prices will collapse," he said.
In July, Russia's Minister for Energy, Alexander Novak, noted that oil quotations of around $ 74 a barrel already take into account the risk of US sanctions against Iran. According to the International Energy Agency, Iranian exports can decrease by 40-50% or by 1.2 million barrels per day after sanctions.
The average price of Urals oil in January-July 2018, according to the RF Treasury, increased by 39% compared to the same period last year – to $ 69.43 per barrel.
The Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) predicts the average price of Brent reference North Sea oil for 2018 at $ 71.74 in 2018, the Fitch rating agency at $ 70 per barrel in 2018 and $ 65 in 2019.
The price of October futures for Brent on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures at 10:33 am Moscow increased by 0.03% – to $ 76.23 a barrel. On Monday, contracts rose by 0.51% to $ 76.21 per barrel.
In June, the CBR raised its forecast for the average oil price for 2018 to $ 67 per barrel from $ 61. Previously, the regulator had already raised the forecast at the end of March.
US sanctions against Iran, which restrict oil exports, could be introduced in November, said State Secretary Michael Pompeo, and after November 4, all purchases of Iranian oil will be considered illegal. In this case, Pompeo noted that for some buyers exceptions can be made for the diversification of deliveries, but for this they must make an appropriate appeal to the US government.
In May, US President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal from the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program and promised not only to renew the old, but also to introduce new sanctions against Tehran. Part of the restriction law began on the night of 7 August, with consequences for the automotive sector of Iran, the purchase and sale of gold and a number of other goods.