Sergei Sobyanin wins the election of the mayor of Moscow with 69.4% of the vote, his opponent-communist Vadim Kumin receives 13.2%, the rest of the competitors – less than 8%. This forecast of the results of the upcoming elections of the head of the capital in a week gave VTsIOM
Photo: Mikhail Tereschenko / TASS
Change of leader in the battle for second place
The All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VCIOM) presented the results of the poll "Electoral preferences of Muscovites" (available for RBC) with a prognosis of the results of the Mayoral elections of the capital, which on 9 September will take place.
The forecast for the rise of VTsIOM is 31.8%, which corresponds to the estimate of early August. Sociologists note in a commentary on the survey that the electoral campaign in the capital has become more prominent: only one third of those who do not exclude the possibility to go to the polls (33%) say no propaganda for the candidates at all .
The predictable favorite remains the current mayor, Sergei Sobyanin – his project result rose from 65.5% to 69.4%. Next comes the candidate from the Communist Party Vadim Kumin, whose figure has risen from 10.1% to 13.2%. At the same time, the predicted results of their opponents – from Mikhail Degtyarev of the LDPR from 11.1% to 7.8%, from Ilya Sviridov & # 39; s reference list drop from 7.1% to 6.5%, from Mikhail Balakin (" Union of Citizens ") – from 4.3% to 1.4%.
The initiative study was carried out by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) from August 28 to August 30 under 1800 adult Muscovites using a telephone interview on a random sample of stationary and mobile numbers. The sample size is 1800 respondents. The maximum error size with a 95% probability does not exceed 2.5%.
According to the survey, on 28 and 30 August, 62% of Muscovites, as in early August, expressed their wish to vote to varying degrees.
Among those who "definitely intend" to participate in the elections, VTsIOM notices a large part of the undecided (16%) with a choice. From the 68% determined, the wish to vote for Sobyanin was 7% for Kumin, 3% or less for the remaining candidates.
Valery Fyodorov, general director of the research center for all Russian research centers (VTsIOM), called the most important stage of the campaign the last week before the election, when voters decided to vote. In his opinion, the situation in the first week of September may differ considerably from the situation in August, because after a holiday in the city a considerable number of voters returned who were not in the mood for the elections and did not appear in the polls. Fedorov also pointed to the influence of the "summer factor" on the election results – because of the good weather many Muscovites will spend the weekend in nature instead of elections.
"So the calculation presented is more of a guideline, the realization of which still has a lot to do for the participants in the elections," Fedorov summarized.
RBC sent a request to the press secretary of Mayor Gulnara Penkova with a request to comment on VTsIOM data.
The spokeswoman for the candidate of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Anastasia Udaltsova told RBC that VTsIOM underestimates the data of opposition candidates in its polls. She recalled that VTsIOM gave such a prediction three weeks before the election of the Mayor of Moscow in 2013: Sobyanin – 67-68%, Navalny – 13-15%, Melnikov – 6%. The actual results were significantly different: Sobyanine – 51%, Bulk – 27%, Melnikov – almost 11%.
"Given that there are no liberals from Navalny and Yabloko in these elections, and the protest potential after the announcement of the cannibalistic [пенсионной] the reform has only grown, we do not exclude the high likelihood of the second round in this election, where Sergei Sobyanin and Vadim Kumin meet, "Udaltsova said.
Ilya Sviridov, in an interview with RBC, called the polling of the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) "formative" and then an attempt to influence the real results of the elections.
"Sociologists are trying to get the mayor of Moscow's vote out of the presidential campaign, are lazy to carry out in-depth research," said Mikhail Lyskov, LDPR candidate, Michail Degtyarev. – In closed polls the candidate of the Communist Party is far behind us and has therefore launched a stormy activity in relation to the reform of the pension system, which is unrelated to the Moscow agenda. "
Elections of the Mayor of Moscow will be held on 9 September. The municipal filter for participation in the campaign failed to pass several candidates, including opposition members Dmitry Gudkov and Ilya Yashin.
As reported by the source of RBC, the Moscow authorities have chosen the pivot points of Sergei Sobyanin's pre-election campaign in preparation for the mayoral elections in September, based on the recommendations set out in the special study of the All-Russia Public Research Center. Opinion. Among them, an attempt to give the candidate of power a more vivid, "human" image.
To increase attendance at the State Duma in Moscow, they approved changes to the capital election code: polling stations will work until 10 pm and also open in holiday complexes outside of Moscow.
The actual voter turnout may be lower than the forecast of the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center, said political analyst Abbas Gallamiov. In his opinion, "the existing set of candidates – the favorite and different spoilers – does not satisfy the opposition-minded public and is unlikely to come to the elections". Against the outward appearance is also played by the fact that loyalists can stay home, because they do not doubt the victory of Sobyanin, and the understanding of voters that the mayoral election is much less fatal than the election of the head of state.
"However, the atmosphere of the holiday on the sites can increase attendance by a few percent – it all depends on how clearly everything will be organized," concluded Gallyamov.