Home / serbia / NBS: Reference interest maintained at 3 percent

NBS: Reference interest maintained at 3 percent

In taking this decision, the Board took into account the expected inflation and its factors in the coming period, as well as the effects of the recent moderation of monetary policy, the NBS reported.

The central bank states that inflationary pressures remained low in conditions of strong economic growth.

<img src = "http://www.rtv.rs/slike/2016/06/10/ekonomija-biznis-660x330_660x330.jpg" border = "0" alt = "economy business 660×330" title = ""/>

Inflation remained within the targeted target and in September it was 2.1 percent, and according to the central prediction of November, it will remain low and stable in a targeted range of 3.0 percent plus / minus 1.5 percentage points yoy to the end of the projection period, or in the next two years.

The NBS reports that the inflation trend for the medium term will mainly be determined by the gradual growth of total demand.

"The financial sector and the economy expect the maintenance of price stability to continue in the coming period, as evidenced by their inflation expectations embedded in the target of 3.0 percent for the year and two years ahead," the statement added.

According to the management, the effects of previous moderation of monetary policy contribute to the acceleration of economic growth, which has grown the highest ten years in the current year and stood at 4.5 percent yoy.

They note that the high contribution to economic growth comes from investments that will enable further growth in exports from the processing industry in the coming period.

The growth of investments is supported by favorable conditions for financing and growth of credit activity. Moreover, the net inflow of foreign direct investment, which more than covers the current account deficit, has a positive impact on export growth and the reduction of external imbalances over the medium term.

The Governing Council believes that prudence in the conduct of monetary policy is still necessary, taking into account in the first place developments in the international environment.

The world oil price is volatile, so the movement in the future is uncertain, with stabilization expected by the end of 2018, and by the end of 2018, and then somewhat towards the end of 2019. For a large part, due to higher oil prices on the world market this year, inflation is also slightly higher in the international environment, according to NBS.

It is expected that by the end of the year the reference rate of the Federal Reserve System of the United States and the completion of the quantitative easing program of the European Central Bank will continue to rise, which could reflect capital flows to emerging countries.

In addition, the increase in protectionism in international trade has contributed to increased uncertainty in the international financial market, which could also reflect the lesser willingness of investors to invest. Nevertheless, the Executive Committee notes that the resilience of our economy to potential negative effects of the international environment has increased as a result of more favorable macroeconomic indicators and prospects for the coming period.

The Governing Council today adopted the November inflation report, which will be presented to the public on November 16th.

The next meeting of the Board of Directors, on which a decision on the reference interest rate will be made, will take place on 6 December.

Source link