GP / Sifo: M in Göteborg on the way to a disaster choice Gothenburg Message



With a few days after the election GP / Sifo makes its last local voter barometer. Compared with the measurement published in August, no changes are statistically guaranteed, but compared to GP / SIFO & # 39; s first measurement in April there are significant changes.

Even this last measurement indicates that the Democrats will be a force to count on after 9 September.

18.8 percent of the Gothenburgers voted according to the survey for the contest party. Compared to the April measurement, when the party was 15.4 percent, this is a considerable increase. At the same time, the party has now put three measurements in a row on comparable figures.

"It seems that the very large and unusual mobilization left by the Democrats is planned, but at the same time it means they will be established as a strong asset in Gothenburg's policies," says Jonas Hinnfors, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg. Gothenburg.

READ MORE: Here are the coalitions that Gothenburg can control

40 per cent of bourgeois parliamentary voters said they would vote for the Democrats in the municipal elections according to the survey.

M can undergo a catastrophe

At the same time, the moderates still have a difficult opinion. The party gets 14.2 percent in the measurement, which is similar to the left party with the same number.

In the April survey, M-support was 19.7 percent, a few percentage points below the 2014 election results. Since April there has been a clear decline.

"The moderators are almost a disaster, even though you have to be careful with those words, they were the leader of the political option to get rid of the reddish, in which matter they seem to fail completely to trust the win voters, says Jonas Hinnfors.

READ MORE: Alliance voters unfaithful – with the Democrats

The Christian Democrats have succeeded in reversing the downward trend in several large empires and the case also seems to be local. At present, 3.6 percent of voters said they would vote locally at KD, a significant increase compared to 1.8 percent in April.

Choice of the road on the way out

A party that makes a completely different journey is the Vägvalet. In April, 5.6 percent of respondents indicated that they would vote for the party. Today the figure is 1.6 percent, also a significant decrease. Such an election result would mean that the party ends outside the city council.

"If these numbers are there, it is clearly worrying about the way we choose, they are about to be eaten," says Jonas Hinnfors.

The Social Democrats are still in historically low numbers, although the party in this survey is increasing to 16.7 percent. However, the party did not have a significant increase or decrease in any of the five local GP / SIFO measurements.

"It's almost as disastrous as it is for the moderates, but can suggest that their bottom has been reached." Now you are the core voters and you will not lose, "says Jonas Hinnor.

Difficult to form the majority

Again, the advice states how difficult it can be to form a majority after the election day.

The reddish, including Feminist initiative, is the largest block of 40.3 percent. Something that is not enough for a majority. At the same time the Alliance has slowed considerably, the support for them is only 29.1 percent.

A majority of voters stand behind parties for the West Link. Opponents of the infrastructure project measure a support of 26.3 percent.

Initially it is likely that the Gothenburg administration will be a non-traditional constellation.

"The gap between the reddish and the alliance is increasing, which is a possible problem for the Alliance, says Jonas Hinnfors.

READ MORE: The parties can receive so many mandates after the elections

D has opened up cooperation on both sides of block boundaries, except for SD and V. At the same time, the party believes they will not compromise on the West link.

"Democrats seem to be primarily attracting bourgeois voters, and voters are likely to turn reddish.Although the Alliance has a humiliatingly low result, Democrats may have to choose their side because if they choose the red-green side , many voters can be disappointed, says Jonas Hinnfors.

FACTS: GP / SIFO local selector barometer

The voter barometer contains interviews with 1274 voters in the city of Gothenburg.

50 percent of the interviews are done by telephone and 50 percent are made via a randomly selected web panel.

The age of the respondents varies between 18 and higher. This measurement has no age limit, in contrast to earlier local measurements.

The survey was held between August 30 and September 4 this year.


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