On Monday, the Riksdag meets and chooses a new speaker. Most of them say that the Alliance, together with SD, has kept each other until the new speaker Ulf Kristersson has proposed as prime minister for an alliance government.
It can end in two ways.
Alliance optimists believe that the Swedish Democrats Kristersson can not stop because it can be interpreted as a tool for Stefan Löfven. In that case, the Alliance can take over the government and reign for at least a few months until it is time to vote for the budget.
The most likely, however, is that the Riksdag says no to Ulf Kristersson. Both Jimmie Åkesson and SD group leader Mattias Karlsson announced last weekend that they will not release any prime minister who does not make political concessions for the Swedish Democrats. Karlsson has stated, among other things, that a new government should direct the immigration policy of the moderators. The center and the liberals will not want to comply with the SD requirements.
If SD in that situation still releases the alliance, they have become the doormat that they promised not to be.
Jimmie Åkesson has also explicitly requested Ulf Kristersson to break the alliance and get rid of C and L. By voting against Kristersson as the leader of an alliance government, SD has good hope to achieve this. They want to see a government that Kristersson relies on SD and KD.
When the alliance says that Jimmie Åkesson does not dare to vote no, because in practice it would be useful to expel Stefan Löfven that Åkesson can stop both Löfven and Kristersson. As long as the other parties collide in blocks and none of them wants to offer SD for political concessions, the Swedish Democrats can push the case all the way to make extra choices. An extra choice that they like to say that they want to introduce.
Normally, a spokesperson would not submit a proposal to the Prime Minister without being sure that the proposal was accepted by the Riksdag.
But this time it can be different. When Stefan Löfven is voted down, the president will consult all party leaders. The three red green proposals will then represent Löfven, the four bourgeois Kristersson, while the Swedish Democrats probably do not give the president a clear message. Jimmie Åkesson says enough, as he said so far: who wants to become minister, must talk to us and that opportunity is right up to the vote.
That is why the president can be forced submit a proposal to the Prime Minister without being sure how it is going. If Löfven has already been appointed by the Riksdag, it will probably be Ulf Kristersson.
Moreover, the speaker can see it as an advantage to even test the name of Ulf Kristersson in an unsafe position.
This can be the only way to lock the locked positions. A no to Ulf Kristersson forces the parties to think again.
Why does the alliance still want to put the problem under pressure? Because alliances do not want to crack themselves.
If the alliance breaks, this should not be the fault of the alliance. It should be someone else's.
The bourgeois party leaders want their voters to say that they have done everything to keep their promises, but that the Swedish Democrats stop them or that SD and S have put them together.
It is probably only then they dare to try other ways. Only then can the moderate and Christian Democrats justify trying to go on without C and L. Only then can the moderate persons justify talking to the Swedish democrats about the content of the policy.
Then liberals and center-partyists can also commit to the electoral movement. The question is which commitments they choose to abandon, not to release a government supported by SD or to help decide the Social Democrats.
Here is the center and the liberals come to go different ways. It is unlikely that the liberals will release a KD-M government that is supported by the Swedish Democrats. How the center does it is more uncertain. And the center can decide the matter alone.
It is likely that both Löfven and Kristersson should be stopped in parliament before the parties are ready to enter into serious negotiations with the government.