Faced with the US stepping into the trade war, Japanese economists pointed out that in the past China should learn from the lessons of Japan, and not worry about the economic slowdown, so that the United States can directly attack this painful foot but moved to the & # 39; lost two as Japan & # 39; goes. Ten years. & # 39;
In this war, China wants to abstain from the 'Plaza Agreement & # 39; in Japan. When the United States strengthened the US dollar and put strong pressure on American exports, the Reagan government began to put pressure on its major trading partners, hoping to resolve the overvaluation of the US dollar and the United States. The problem of the ever-growing trade deficit was finally signed in 1985 with major trading partners such as Japan, France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
Japan made the biggest compromise of these countries, the most important of which was the appreciation of the yen against the US dollar: from 1985 to 1987, the yen appreciated more than 50% against the US dollar. Japanese officials then feared that the excessive appreciation of the yen would undermine economic competitiveness, and they would maintain economic expansion by easing credit. At the same time, the reference interest rate would be reduced from 5% to 2.5%, which would blow up the bubble of the Japanese stock market and housing market.
In 1989, after the Japanese authorities realized that the economy was overheating and turned to interest rate increases, from May 1989 to August 1990, the reference interest rate rose from 2.5% to 6% in just over a year. The big money bank pierced Japan. The economic bubble also has the Japanese economy in a 20 years lost & # 39; brought.
Governor Kuroda of the Bank of Japan said that the cause of the severe inflation and asset bubbles at that time was not the appreciation of the yen itself, but of the economic policy mistakes of the government.
The Japanese economist Tsusaka Junjo also pointed out that the pressure of valuing the yen at the time had put the Japanese economy and companies under pressure, but the exchange rate always has two sides: for the processing industry, the appreciation of Japan is indeed a disaster but the purchasing power can be for consumers. Greatly enhanced. In the long run, the Japanese processing industry has to be transferred to foreign investments and factories are set up because of their valuation. "The future will be" internationalized ". For example, if Toyota does not have the events of the year, it will not develop into a large international company.
He admits, however, that the right to speak in the Japanese manufacturing industry has always been strong. Every time the yen appreciates it will be considered a "national deprivation", forcing the government to take countermeasures. "This also allows the United States to see the appreciation of the yen through Japan's biggest weakness." Take this power to force the pressure. "
China & # 39; s self exposure
On the other hand, when China's economic growth slows, the government will use a fiscal and accommodative monetary policy, which is simply a short-term exposure. For the United States, it is obvious to opt for a trade war if Chinese policy actively lowers debt, so that domestic unrest in China is as long as it is now, so it is delayed. Previous President Trump of the US had ridiculed the Chinese economy at the moment, including retail, business investment and industrial production.
Jin Shangjun said that China has been out of debt twice in the last two years, and if it is delayed two or three times, the national balance of China will be irreparably damaged, which will weaken the economic vitality of China. I fled in the footsteps of Japan & # 39; s & # 39; lost twenty years & # 39 ;. China is being called upon to refrain from Japan's lessons after the Plaza Agreement and not to expose itself to the short-term goals of the United States.
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