Gold price fell to a low of 19 months last week, and this week there will be many factors contributing to price volatility, including trade negotiations between the US and China, the annual meeting of the global central bank and the minutes of the meeting in July. These events will affect the strength of the dollar and further influence the trend of gold.
Data show that COMEX Gold Futures once fell to $ 1,171.60 per ounce on August 16 and rose slightly to $ 1,191.50 an ounce on Monday morning. The gold price fell by about 13.5% this year and ended up in the revised area.
When the dollar rises, the gold price will come under pressure, analysts think the strong trend of the dollar this year especially is due to "Champ Trumponomics, the US government adopts a policy of tax reform and increases spending, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to raise interest rates.
This means that the Trump government is pursuing a smooth fiscal policy, but the Federal Reserve seeks to tighten monetary policy. "The recent report by Brown Brothers Harriman Bank (BBH) pointed out that" monetary policy and looser fiscal policies are tightening "For the continued growth of the currency this is the policy combination United States is being pursued. "
The BBH report pointed out that capital is deposited in the United States, and the Treasury Department has shown that US property has bought US $ 417.4 billion in US assets in the second quarter. current economic policy is extremely attractive to foreign investors, pushing the dollar up.
Affecting the price of gold
Economic data from the US
The United States will increase the total annual revenue of existing homes announce Wednesday in July, with an estimated value of 5.45 million and 5.38 million in the previous period On Friday, the monthly rate for durable goods orders will be announced in July, but analysts believe that these data do not impact on the gold market
The report of the July meeting of the Joint Committee [19659002] The joint committee will announce the minutes of the July meeting on Wednesday. Investors can pay attention to the discussion advice of the members and the members are worried about inflation and trade disputes. The perception of fiscal policy will show their potential sentiment and whether they believe the bank is under pressure to suspend interest rate hikes.
Jackson Hole symposium
JCME Chairman Jerome Powell holds a lecture at the annual central bank's annual meeting on Friday, investors will pay attention to future policy development. The market is of the opinion that the probability that the Federal Reserve raises an interest rate of 1 yard in September is more than 90%, and that the probability of raising interest rates again in December is 60%. If these expectations change, the dollar will be hit hard, and even more deafening remarks can lead to a sharp fall in the dollar and support for gold.
Trade negotiations between the US and China
The United States and China will conduct trade negotiations on 22 and 23 August, and if the direction or results are good, the US dollar may weaken and the gold price So get support.
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