October 2, 2018
By Thaioil Plc.
Oil prices are expected to rise. The global supply of crude oil is tight.
Thai Ole is expanding raw intermediate prices for West Texas this week US $ 70-75 per barrel Crude Brent crude oil moves $ 80 – $ 85 per barrel
Development of the oil price (1 – 5 October 61)
The price of crude oil is expected to rise continuously from last week. The supply of crude oil is probably tight. From the reduction of crude oil exports from Iran and Venezuela. Both OPEC and non-OPC producers decided to maintain production capacity. The United States did not pay attention to the claims and the United States did not yet have a position to sell crude oil in the Strategic Reserve (SPR). Crude oil is expected to come under pressure from US crude oil stocks. The upward trend. Oil demand is expected to come under pressure from the trade war. And the oil price is rising.
Important factors that are expected to influence oil prices this week.:
- Iran's production of crude oil and export volume is expected to drop faster than expected. After countries The import of crude oil from Iran was cut off on November 4, 61, before US sanctions. Iran's crude oil exports can drop to 1.4 – 2.0 million barrels per day. This was lower than the previous level of 8 million barrels per day. South Korea and Japan stopped importing crude oil from Iran. In the meantime it is unlikely that India will import oil from Iran in November.
- After a meeting between producers both inside and outside the OPEC on 22 and 23 September, Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to keep production up to standard. Ignore US claims. Production capacity is expected to be increased to offset the supply of crude oil from Iran. Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy said it was not necessary to increase production. Because the crude oil market is in balance. It is expected that the supply of crude oil outside the OPEC group next year will exceed the demand for the world market.
- US crude oil stocks There is a tendency to increase. Behind the American refinery There is a tendency to reduce the refining margin during the refinery maintenance season. In the last week US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports crude US stocks When the refinery increased by 1.9 million barrels to 396 million barrels, the refining margin decreased by 5 percent to 4 percent during the maintenance shutdown.
- Demand for oil in the world is expected to come under pressure from trade wars between the United States and China after imports of Chinese imports into the United States. Moreover, the oil price has risen in the past. This may put pressure on the future demand for oil.
- US dollar The trend is stronger. The Fed announced an interest rate increase of 25% to 2.00-2.25 per cent on September 26 and signaled a further rate hike in December. c. 61 The US dollar The valuation may lead to investors reducing their investment in the crude oil market. Because of crude oil prices in US currency. It will be higher compared to other currencies.
- The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States this week is expected to be around $ 5 billion. Unemployment in the eurozone Unemployment in the eurozone And the retail trade in the eurozone.
Summarize the oil price situation in the last week (24 – 28 September 61)
The American stopover in Western Texas rose by US $ 2.47 to US $ 73.25 per barrel, while Brent oil rose US $ 3.92 to US $ 82.72 per barrel. Dubai crude oil closed at $ 81 a barrel, driven by Saudi Arabia and Russia's decision to maintain production. The water volume of crude oil exports from Iran is likely to fall. However, crude oil prices are still under pressure. Concerned about the war between the United States and China and the amount of American crude oil. That is the expectations of analysts.
Source: Thai Oil Public Company Limited