The National Bank of Ukraine does not exclude both the strengthening of the hryvnia, and the continuation of the devaluation. At the same time there is no question of the dollar exchange rate of UAH 40, said Sergey Ponomarenko, director of the Open Market department of the National Bank. Remember that this figure sounded in the scenarios that the National Bank itself announced in July. Such a percentage, stressed the regulator, is possible in the event of termination of cooperation with the IMF and a fall in world prices for metals.
According to Ponomarenko, the fluctuations on the foreign exchange market were earlier and will continue in the future. "It is necessary to understand that the fluctuations are not just one way. At the beginning of the year reinforced the hryvnia, now it weakens. In the future it will also devalue and strengthen. That is, about every UAH 40 per dollar does not talk", He said.
At the same time, the Ministry of Finance is studying five alternative shock scenarios that can await the Ukrainian government debt. This is stated in the "medium-term strategy for government debt management for 2018-2020", which the government has approved. The first scenario is called "Currency shock", and it provides for the devaluation of the hryvnia by 20% in 2018 compared with the exchange rate of 30.1 UAH / $.
What about the prices on the car
In the meantime, people will rush to invest valuable hryvnia in something tangible: apartments, cars, gadgets and household appliances. As the car salesmen told us, the growth of the dollar in August 2016 boosted sales by more than 2 UAH. The same happened in 2017, when the devaluation in September added a dollar exchange rate of more than 1 UAH and coincided with the seasonal wave of activation of the car market.
But now an increase in demand is hampered by a number of factors, experts say. Therefore, until the growth in sales is not that much. "The revival of new car sales is not as noticeable as in previous years due to the presence of a number of limitations. Key: uncontrolled imports of cars on euro-timers, expectation of a substantial decrease in excise duties and liberalization of the rules for the import of cars to Ukraine", The press service of UkrAVTO Corporation told us.
Activation of sales confirmed to us and other showrooms, but note that this has not yet passed in a confident trend. However, everything can change if the rate rises sharply, vendors say.
The Cabinet has a forecast for the rate of hryvnia for 2019-2020
"28 UAH / $ is the barrier, after which growth of activity is possible. The situation on the price tags is ambiguous. Different politicians have a different policy in this area. Some change the price daily, respectively, in this situation the price varies synchronously with the price. Others change once a week, so a potential buyer has a chance to save on purchases. Some importers in the warehouses may have cars that are disposed of at low speed, and under certain circumstances and the importer's desire to sell these leftovers as quickly as possible, the buyer will also be able to car at the "promotional price""- said the director of the official dealer center FORD" ViDi-Kray Motors "Vitaly Dorofeyev.
At the same time, salespeople add that, in view of the unstable situation on the market, many importers "operate on the wheels", that is to say they drive cars based on demand, and it is not profitable to store large warehouses. To keep Ukraine. Therefore, who planned to buy a car in the near future – it is worth to rush.
Ask for apartments
But where is already being looked at the activation of buyers demand, so this is the real estate market. Potential buyers have completed telephone sales departments, increasing the number of views of residential complexes. As head of the sales department of the mini city Svitlo park Alexander Panfilov said, in general, during the summer, the demand for apartments grows by 30% per month. And 60% of the apartments are usually taken in installments.
"In our facility, as in a number of other projects of the "city in the city" format, the price is linked to the dollar exchange rate. For other objects I can assume that many developers after transcending the psychological threshold of 28 UAH / $ are forced to raise prices. Something similar happened in November-December 2017. But after the stabilization of the exchange rate of the hryvnia, developers have adjusted the prices downwards"- says Panfilov.
Sales Director of the Valira Prohnov development community of Domira ensures that demand is gradually increasing, which is typical for August. "Most likely, potential buyers – "at low start" and waiting for the stabilization or rollback of the course. And only then there is usually a strong increase in deals on the market. If the rate does not stabilize, it is possible to state with a high degree of probability that the sales level will rise sharply in September – by 15-20%.", He says.
Gadgets on credit
Activated in recent weeks and sale of stores of household appliances and electronics. And the majority of customers quickly make a decision and make purchases on the day of choice. The volumes of consumer credits are also growing. But since the September days ahead, customers are more focused on buying gadgets and other related products for schools and universities, vendors say.
Buyers were intensified on time. Due to the growth of the exchange rate, the sellers of technology are busy revamping the price tags. "Demand grew by about 25%. The prices are closely linked to the dollar, so the correction is natural. We view prices every day"- said director of marketing electronics store City.com.ua Alexei Tikhonov.