According to OPEC in the fourth quarter of 2018, global oil demand will exceed 100 million barrels per day for the first time in history.
In addition, the cartel increased its forecast for the consumption account – if it was 100.2 million barrels in September, the amount in the October report is 100.8 million barrels. At the same time, the forecast for the extraction of raw materials by non-OPEC countries was revised: from 66.57 million barrels per day to 67.02 million.
As far as the balance on the oil market is concerned, it was scarce in the third quarter – the demand exceeded the supply by an average of 0.5 million barrels per day.
If the OPEC freezes its production at the level of September 2018, the fourth quarter of 2018 will also be scarce with a correct cartel prognosis, but the shortage of "black gold" will exceed 0.5 million in the period from July to September. barrels.
Summary of 1K
Given the events of recent weeks, the prognosis of the cartel can be a bit exaggerated. OPEC is of the opinion that demand will increase thanks to the Asian region and the countries of the former Soviet Union. Perhaps the calculations of the organization do not take into account the abnormally warm weather in the middle of autumn and this will certainly affect the consumption of oil.
That means the demand for & # 39; black gold & # 39; most likely will not be as big as predicted by the OPEC. It is therefore unlikely that the shortage of raw materials will seriously exceed the levels of the third quarter of 2018.