there is a threat to the hryvnia – Ministry of Finance



Massive Gulf State Treasury hryvnia on the market in the form of VAT refunds quickly changed the balance between supply and demand

Cash forecast for September 29-30

This week, the national currency once again feverish, although it all started pretty well and for the period from 24 to 25 September the rate fell from 28.12 / 28.17 to 28.03 / 28.05 hryvnia. The NBU even managed to buy back part of the surplus currencies on September 25 to 28.04.

But on this very positive dynamic at the end of the course. The huge bay of the treasury hryvnia to the market in the form of VAT refunds quickly changed the balance of supply and demand. Demand grew actively, but the proposal quickly began to dry up. Exporters have reduced the sale of foreign currency, prefer to spend the hryvnia, which came from the state. This in the beginning simply supported the dollar, and already by Thursday led to a jump in bids to 28.31 / 28.34 hryvnia at the end of the day. Friday not only completed the work week, but was the last day of the month and the quarter. Therefore, the dynamics of trade reflected the situational tasks of the customer at the end of the reporting period, with the result that by the end of the week the dollar on the interbank market stopped around 28.20 / 28.23 hryvnia.

More or less understood the situation and the euro. After the expected rise in the Fed rate by 0.25%, the ratio of the euro / dollar pair to Friday at 6:00 pm comes to the level of 1.1615 dollars per euro.

For the Russian ruble, the situation is again linked to two important factors – politics (the impact of the US and EU sanctions) and the dynamics of oil prices. The cost of oil is gradually increasing and this has helped the ruble to strengthen the last week to the level of 65.50 rubles per dollar in the evening of 28 September.

The situation at the auction on Friday remained calm enough for the hryvnia and the owners of the changers will take this into account when setting up courses for the weekend. For all the above currencies, they will work in the "with sales" format with an average level of the spread.

Exchange rates for the weekend

Quotes from the cash dollar are within: acceptance of 27.95-28.05 hryvnia, sale of 28.15 – 28.28.25 hryvnia. The level of the spread on the dollar in the stock markets will amount to 20 kopecks.

Quotes from the euro. Friday night the cross-rate euro / dollar was around 1.1615. The announcement of the Fed's decision to raise the base rate to 2.25% per annum has already disclosed its information and there are no special surprises for the weekend on this pair. Therefore, the owners of the exchangers will only be guided by the current state of affairs without posing the essential currency risks. We predict the price level in the exchangers for the euro for the weekend: the receipt of 32,463 – 32,580 hryvnia and the sale of 32,696 – 32,812 hryvnia with spread to 30 cents per euro.

The prices calculated by us can be further adjusted to within plus or minus 5 kopecks per euro, depending on the individual tasks of the relevant exchanger.

Quotes about the Russian ruble. Tactics of financiers in the ruble will remain the same: the speed of receipt of the ruble, they will be under the offers of the purchase of the interbank, and the level of sales in the exchangers will be within the selling price of the non-cash ruble on Friday interbank.

Quotations of the ruble at the weekend are as follows: entry for 1 ruble – at 0.425-0.428 UAH and sales of 0.449 – 0.431.

The ruble rates calculated by the Ministry of Finance can still be an additional deviation of up to plus or minus 0.008-0.01 hryvnia on the ruble, depending on the tasks of the switch point and the degree of risk assessment of the owners of a certain exchange network.


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