1,000 points at hand, profit or hold? – VnEconomy



UN Index evolves to the target area of ​​experts and starts to look different in the short term.

The market last week has slowed in the previous session, but still has high expectations in the area of ​​1,000-1010 points, as experts had previously expected. Experts say that when it comes to psychological resistance, the market slows and differentiation is normal due to different profit-generating pressures.

Experts also have different opinions. It is suggested that the market will have multiple sessions to reach the 1000 point and the psychological caution questions will appear, so that the share of short-term stocks can be reduced and new signals can wait. However, long-term investors can increase their exposure.

There is a dependency on share ownership, because the surplus of the index is not so large, but the differentiation entails different opportunities.

By assessing the risks associated with escalating trade strains and the ability to raise US dollar rates, experts agree that such information will no longer be as shocking as in the past. for the time being from the market. In case of adjustment, the market will only adjust normally because of the good basis that has been collected for this.

Cash flow trend: 1,000 points at hand, profit or hold? - Photo 1.

Nguyen Hoang, VNS

The market has resumed the uptrend this week and 1,000 points closer than ever when the UN index approached 890 points twice. There are some profitable tips for more than 10 points left and indeed the speed in the weekend has slowed, what about your opinion? How do you rate the progress?

Mr. Nguyen Nhat Cuong, Deputy Head of the Research Department, Vietinbank Securities

The UN Index has slowed considerably in the last two trading sessions of the week, which we think has several reasons:

(1) The psychology of investors is waiting for positive information from the trade negotiations between the US and China regarding trade barriers between the two parties, so that the money to the market is not really fierce;

(2) The UN Index has had 6 consecutive ascending sessions since 961.37 points, so one or two sessions of "rest" are necessary;

(3) many large-cap stocks that support the market are in a relatively strong resistance range, as the sales pressure at the 990 level is quite high.

For combined reasons, we think that the slowdown of the UN Index in the last two trading sessions last week was reasonable and necessary.

Mr. Tran Huu Phuc, Head of Brokerage Department, VCBS Securities

The UN Index outperformed 980 points, but liquidity did not change, but the positive point was that cash flow has spread to many different sectors, increasing 18 out of 20 groups in the week. Small caps had the strongest gain this week and reached 3.7%.

The trend of cash flow and the recovery of the banking group will help the UN Index next week to reach 1000 thresholds.

In our opinion, the technical indicators are still bullish with the goal of winning 1,000 points, with convergence of many important obstacles such as MA200.

Mr. Le Hoang Tan, Director of Saigon – MBS Securities

In my opinion, the market is still up-trend sideways. Point of 1000 points is only psychological, the market can rise to higher levels.

At the moment, the profit in terms of index does not seem much, but in terms of division into classes the chance is still high. The cash flow is divided into many different shares. Bank shares helped the market break through the 980 points of resistance and went into accumulation, the cash flow continued to flow to oil and gas. This shows that the cash flow remains in the market and is actively looking for investment opportunities.

Mr. Tran Xuan Bach, Department of Market Strategy, Bao Viet Securities

Investors in the market are cautious and anxious when the UN Index approaches psychological resistance. 1,000 points is understandable. Reducing stock exposure and waiting for clearer signals from the market is a must.

From my point of view, however, I still expect the market to rise from 1,000 to 1,010 over the coming weeks.

Mr. Nguyen Viet Quang, Deputy Director of Ha Noi Branch, Yuanta Securities Vietnam

The market was positive on the first trading day of August 21 and helped MA20 to support the short-term trend. The last two sessions of the market have fought fiercely to slow down the momentum, and last week's market can be seen as an upward trend with a strong distribution.

Speculative shares are pretty positive. At the same time, the shares of Largecaps are in a cumulative condition and are barely fluctuating, so the group of shares still has rhythmic shakes or small changes in the session, while shares Midcaps and Smallcaps enter the stage. The movement is strong in a positive direction.

For merchants who prefer surfing, consider taking profits and adjusting the portfolio against the current price range and restructuring the portfolio. While long-term investors, shaking rhythms are a good opportunity to increase equity exposure.

Cash flow trend: 1,000 points at hand, profit or hold? - Photo 2.

Nguyen Hoang, VNS

One of the factors that affected the market last week was the ability to reduce trade strains through negotiations between the US and China. But the results were nothing new and the tension escalated to a new level with the extra tax on August 23. The United States is expected to decide to levy up to $ 200 billion in Chinese goods by the end of August. On the other hand, the Fed can raise interest rates again. Do these developments have a negative effect on the market?

Mr. Tran Xuan Bach, Department of Market Strategy, Bao Viet Securities

The above factors were partly in the expectation of investors and also reflected in the global movements of the stock markets last week. Therefore, I believe that these concerns will no longer have a significant impact on the performance of the global stock market in general and Vietnam in particular in the short term.

However, these are still potential risk factors for the market that investors should closely monitor in the future.

Mr. Tran Huu Phuc, Head of Brokerage Department, VCBS Securities

The stock market in Vietnam saw a decline when the Federal Reserve increased interest rates, leading to net withdrawals in emerging markets, including Vietnam. In my opinion, the exchange rate increase is a short-term market disadvantage.

Mr. Nguyen Viet Quang, Deputy Director of Ha Noi Branch, Yuanta Securities Vietnam

The negative information about the trade war between the United States and China has been released a lot lately and this information has been reflected in stock prices in the recent deep decline.

The Fed's continued rise in interest rates since the beginning of the year was influenced by the continued net sales of foreigners, but as the total number of the Vietnamese market is still net buyers at the beginning of the year. It is therefore likely that the Fed's rate hike will only have a short-term effect, which will correct the market and will hardly have a negative impact on the Vietnamese market.

Cash flow trend: 1,000 points at hand, profit or hold? - Photo 3.

Mr. Nguyen Nhat Cuong, Deputy Head of Research Analyst, Vietinbank Securities

The most recent round of negotiations between the US and China on trade-off is not a positive one that most analysts have expected. The same thing happened with the Fed's ability to raise interest rates to almost 90% in September, which was also predicted.

Therefore, in our opinion, these two factors will not have a serious impact on the stock market in the coming sessions as reflected in the previous sessions.

On the other hand, the fact that the US decided at the end of August to raise the tax rate to 200 billion USD on Chinese goods did not really have a negative effect on the macro function in the world in general and the Vietnamese market. Nam in particular.

The reason is that China still has a more advantageous trade balance than the United States in terms of bilateral trade between the two countries thanks to the devaluation of the CPY is quite strong 5.84% since the beginning of 2018 while the dollar continues to rise. That is why this step of the US is, in our opinion, only a movement to "level" the score with China.

Mr. Le Hoang Tan, Director of Saigon – MBS Securities

I still judge the fact that the trade tensions will be a favorable agreement for the United States, not the positive direction. After all, both parties are very clear that if the two countries actually go to a real commercial war, they will both be negatively affected, and the Chinese economy will be severely damaged. Lake.

The Fed's rate hike has started, so it will no longer affect the negative.

In terms of information, in September we will have the Q3 structure of the two ETFs and the information will be sunk, so my market will pile up again in September and wait for business results. Q3.

Nguyen Hoang, VNS

From a technical perspective, do you rate the market opportunity above 1000 thresholds as expected or not? What is the probability of a correction in the short-term correction scenario?

Mr. Tran Huu Phuc, Head of Brokerage Department, VCBS Securities

The market has very strong psychological resistance around 1000 points. Therefore, the UN Index may drop when the psychological level is touched and the first is adjusted to MA20 support level corresponding to 968 points.

Mr. Nguyen Nhat Cuong, Deputy Head of Research Analyst, Vietinbank Securities

CTS said the UN index was not really ready to regain the psychological threshold of 1,000 by the end of August, as the market still did not support the large cash flow of foreigners in the context of the trend of net sales. is still the main resonance with the current cash flow investors have not yet created stability and continuously to support the market.

Moreover, from the point of view of technical analysis, the indicators are still in a reasonably balanced state in which the primary accumulation state awaits new information. Although the short-term trend of the past trading days tends towards the buyers, this situation is likely to be reversed with the advantage of the sellers in the context of quite a large number of shares and capital. Large shares have strong resistance after consecutive days.

Moreover, the UN Index closed with a shorter candlestick with higher and lower shadows of equal length, which showed a reasonably balanced balance between supply and demand between sellers and buyers. Investors are hesitant to buy when the buyers are not really clear because of concerns that trade tensions will increase with the unpredictable movements of foreign investors.

The market movement in the next session will be quite important and can determine the trend of the UN Index at the end of August. If the buyer does not show more clearly that he can make the breakthrough on the market, the capacity can be corrected. The UN Index can be corrected and the UN Index will have to check the threshold for short-term support.

However, the MACD line> 0 and Bollinger bands move upwards with a narrowing band that also gives a positive signal, with the risk of a deep fall is not too big and if it falls, then the recovery is pretty quick the threshold. strongly supporting 955 points – the intersection of the MA 50 and the Bollinger band on average.

Cash flow trend: 1,000 points at hand, profit or hold? - Photo 4.

Mr. Le Hoang Tan, Director of Saigon – MBS Securities

From a technical point of view I still have the reputation of a revival of the market to surpass the psychological 1000 points. In the case of a short-term correction, the support of 945-950 will be a good support of the market.

Mr. Nguyen Viet Quang, Deputy Director of Ha Noi Branch, Yuanta Securities Vietnam

The current resistance is at 1,015 points after the market exceeds the 980 level. It is unlikely that in the context of a lack of positive information, support and international market tension will have a correction in achieving this level of resistance.

If the market correction takes place, it can return to the 960 level. This can be said that a reasonably solid basis has been created in the past.

Mr. Tran Xuan Bach, Department of Market Strategy, Bao Viet Securities

Technically I think that the market scenario will soon exceed the resistance at 1000 points to achieve the strong resistance at 1,040-1,060 points in the near future.

In the short term, the market may still need time to accumulate, perhaps even to adjust to the support range of 970-975 points, before the upward cycle is continued.

Cash flow trend: 1,000 points at hand, profit or hold? - Photo 5.

Nguyen Hoang, VNS

The increase last week was less and the number fell more than they rose. This can be due to short-term actions to make a profit. Did you lower your weight?

Mr. Le Hoang Tan, Director of Saigon – MBS Securities

Now I have reduced the share in bank shares. However, I still see investment opportunities in a number of good growth companies such as REE, HPG. Another trader that investors should consider is the securities shares with top stocks such as SSI, HCM, VND, MBS.

Mr. Tran Huu Phuc, Head of Brokerage Department, VCBS Securities

The market is still in an upward trend, so we still have the portfolio.

Mr. Tran Xuan Bach, Department of Market Strategy, Bao Viet Securities

I still keep a portfolio of 80% of the portfolio (of which the short-term portfolio is 60%).

Mr. Nguyen Viet Quang, Deputy Director of Ha Noi Branch, Yuanta Securities Vietnam

I kept the same ratio as last week when the short-term portfolio had 57% of the 43% in cash, while the long-term portfolio had 32% and 68% in cash. .

Mr. Nguyen Nhat Cuong, Deputy Head of Research Analyst, Vietinbank Securities

Investors can benefit from the upward trend of the short-term price as support for the banking sector and large caps. Exposure to the portfolio can be maintained at 45% – 50% and must give priority to stocks with high liquidity and also attract cash flow – top 10 with the largest capitalization and leading banks At the same time we must courageously limit losses if the UN index is reversed and falls below 970.

Long-term investors continue to hold 40-45% of the current portfolio and benefit from adjusted increases to increase equity exposure in the existing portfolio.


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