After the rhythm of the correction in early April, the stock market in Vietnam has recovered reasonably in recent days. After the end of the trading session on 18 September, the UN Index closed at 993.49 points, which represents an increase of about 23% compared to a year ago, making it the second best stock index in the world. phase, behind the Russell 3000 growth (index of 3,000 largest companies in the United States).
The recent growth of the Vietnamese market stems from the performance of listed companies. The operating results of Q2 / 2012 showed that the total profit of listed companies on HoSE amounted to 34,400 billion dong, an increase of 42% compared to the same period last year. The profit of VN30 in particular reached VND 28,400 billion, representing 83% of the market profit with a growth of 22% compared to Q2 / 07.
By the way, Vietnam's macro stability also helped stabilize the stock market. This implies that Vietnam (1) has a strong balance of payments; (2) the export turnover increases; (3) trade surplus and (4) stable inflation, as a result of which the exchange rate in the past months does not exceed the expected range. The SBV has reduced credit growth in order to curb inflation and this seems to have had a positive effect on the fall in inflation to below 4%.
A solid macro platform, the Vietnamese stock market is a safe haven for cash flow
Given these factors, the Vietnamese equity market has attracted many foreign cash flows, despite the continued net withdrawals, especially in emerging markets. From the beginning of the year, the net purchase value of foreign investors at HoSE reached nearly VND 3200 billion ($ 1.4 billion) and this is the net purchasing volume to date.
In a recently published new report, HSC said, foreign investors seem to have recognized the clear differences between the Vietnamese economy and other Asian and emerging economies. Vietnam's economy is strong in economic structure and potential growth.
In a commentary on the trade war between the US and China, HSC said that investor sentiment over the last weeks for the impact of mutual taxation between the US and China was on Vietnam's macroeconomic outlook. There was a change. Instead of worrying about the possibility of slowing down trade in the mid-term, investors are optimistic about the possibility of moving production from China to Vietnam in the medium to long term. faster.
However, HSC also said that if the world stock market is highly adjusted, the market in Vietnam is also difficult to prevent the decline. The basis for believing that the Vietnamese stock market is a relatively safe haven is growing steadily and some investors even expect Vietnam to benefit from the war. . Here HSC wants to talk about the relative increase of the Vietnamese market compared to most regional and emerging markets in the coming months on the basis of the underlying fundamentals. strong version.
According to HSC, Vn-Index could move around MA 200 days (currently 1023.73) in the coming days.
According to Minh Anh